
UFC 96: “Jackson vs. Jardine” is set to go down this Saturday, March 7 from The Nationwide Arena in Columbus, Ohio, live on pay-per-view (PPV) starting at 10p.m. ET.
Remember: MMAmania.com will provide LIVE updates with blow-by-blow, round-by-round commentary of the main card action on fight night, which is slated to air at 10 p.m. ET.
To get us pumped for the festivities, MMAmania.com Editor and Senior Writer Jesse Holland (that’s me) will break down the main event matches and reveal each fighter’s keys to victory.
If you’re looking for an unbiased and objective examination of each contest, then I’m happy to report you will be extremely disappointed.
Why else do you think I would depose the former contributors and take this act solo like the selfish blowhard you already know me to be?
But enough about me … at least for the time being.
Let’s get cracking:
Quinton “Rampage” Jackson (29-7) vs. Keith “The Dean of Mean” Jardine (14-4-1)
The UFC 96 card is topped with a compelling main event — though you wouldn’t know it from the recent grumblings of casual MMA fans. I suppose most of us were expecting “Rampage” to get a crack at current 205-pound kingpin Rashad Evans after his big knockout win over Wanderlei Silva at UFC 92: “The Ultimate 2008″ last December; however, a deal could not be struck between both parties for the big money match. Instead he’ll face the “Dean of Mean” — who’s done his share to be atop the light heavyweight ladder, putting together a solid record of (6-3) during his time in the Octagon. His resume is highlighted with wins over some of the top names in the sport such as Forrest Griffin, Chuck Liddell, Brandon Vera and others. Those victories are unfortunately overshadowed by the site of Jardine going limp at the hands of Houston Alexander at UFC 71 and Wanderlei Silva at UFC 84. While Jardine has shown he can get dropped on the inside in a wild melee, he’s also proven that he can inflict heavy damage with his legs like he did to neutralize “The Iceman” at UFC 76 and TKO Kerry Schall at the TUF 2 Finale. I don’t think Jardine changes much from fight to fight nor do I think he needs to. He is a complete fighter who sometimes runs the ship aground when he gets lured into a slugfest. The question for me is how much Rampage has changed — if at all. His striking looked clean and crisp against Wanderlei Silva in December, but was the loss to ex-champ Forrest Griffin a learning experience? True, it was his only defeat since 2005 and there wasn’t a whole lot that needed improving, but the site of him limping and spending the entire second round getting beaten up at UFC 86 did raise a few red flags. Those mistakes have to be corrected for this fight because it’s only three rounds and there’s very little margin for error against a bruiser like Jardine. If Jackson can take the leg kicks out of the equation, he should cruise to a unanimous decision win.
Keys to victory:
Jackson: While the leg kicks are of primary importance, don’t forget he also dropped Liddell with a punch and delivered Griffin to the corner of Cries and Runs. Keep the distance and think of all those cold days he made you spend in the UK away from your kids.
Jardine: Since the only person rooting for you outside of the Greg Jackson camp is Lyoto Machida, take a page out of his playbook and frustrate the former champ. Backpedal, let him come to you and then blast him with leg kicks. Repeat ad nauseam.
Prediction: Jackson by unanimous decision
Shane Carwin (10-0) vs. Gabriel “Napao” Gonzaga (10-3)
When Brock Lesnar faced Frank Mir in his UFC debut, I said “Don’t believe the hype.” Well I’m prepared to bite from Public Enemy once again and say don’t believe the hype – it’s a sequel. Shane Carwin has descended upon the heavyweight division from his throne atop of Mount Hype to face the Brazilian Yeti known as Gabriel Gonzaga. Now before the defenders of the faith rush down to the comments section and start feverishly typing about my hatred for Shane-O, let’s be clear — this guy’s got the goods. Carwin is a three-time All-American in wrestling and a two-time All-American in football out of Western State College and has not made it into the second round of any (10) of his professional mixed martial arts fights. In fact, Carwin fights have AVERAGED just one minute each. He’s coming off a 91-second destruction of the previously unbeaten Neil Wain at UFC 89 back in October and perhaps this is my biggest concern. There are too many unknowns for Carwin because he’s never been tested. I’m sure he has great gym cardio, but what happens if he goes past the second round? How will he react if he gets cut above the eye and is covered in blood with a giant hairball straddling him while raining down punches? Carwin can have all the hype and praise in the world, but in my opinion he’s got to get past Gonzaga first — and do it convincingly. How can a guy that doesn’t train full time because of his career working at the Burns Nuclear Power Plant just walk into the cage with “Napao” and make magic happen? MMA experts who are secretly on Carwin’s payroll like Larry Pepe will tell you that Gonzaga was handled by Couture and Werdum, but let’s not try to compare Carwin — whose career highlight is a KO win over Christian Wellisch — with two of the world’s top ten heavyweights. As for Gonzaga? He’s big, mean and nasty — and he’s not afraid of pulling the overhead brake on anyone’s hype train (See Filipovic, Mirko). Sprinkle some jiu-jitsu black belt on top of that and you have Carwin served up on a platter. So let it be written, so let it be dumb.
Keys to victory:
Carwin: Wrestling may get you top position, but is that a place you really want to be against a BJJ black belt? Keep it standing and fight intelligently. Forget about the KO and work the clinch. Beware of the head kick.
Gonzaga: He’s stronger than anyone you’ve ever fought and hits like a sledgehammer, but he’s also known as the Green Giant by insiders. Exploit his inexperience with a offense that includes strikes and jits to keep him off balance and guessing. Then smash him and make Lesnar worry about what happens if he gets past Frank Mir.
Prediction: Gonzaga by TKO
Pete “Drago” Sell (8-4) vs. Matt “The Immortal” Brown (8-7)
I’ve been hearing a lot of moaning and groaning about this fight making the main card and if you’re one of the haters, kindly excuse yourself from the room and go slam an arsenic smoothie. Every card should have a match-up like this with two guys that aren’t there to do anything but batter their opponent. Sell — the protégé of former welterweight champion Matt Serra — made his 170-pound debut against Josh Burkman at UFC 90: “Silva vs. Cote” in October 2008, defeating “The Peoples Warrior” via unanimous decision in an exciting back-and-forth match. Opposing him is Matt Brown, who stepped up on short notice to replace an injured Matt Riddle at UFC 91: “Couture vs. Lesnar” in November 2008 and scored an impressive second round submission win over Ryan Thomas via armbar. I like the new-look “Drago,” he boasts a nice size and power advantage over most of his opponents in the 170-pound division — including Brown and packs a decent punch. I do expect “The Immortal” to be game throughout, his grit and determination have been complimented by a great deal of post-TUF improvement in his fight against “Stun Gun” Kim at UFC 88 and even more so against Thomas. I just don’t think his intensity and stubbornness will be enough to overcome the more complete Sell, and I have questions about Brown’s gas tank. Don’t be surprised to see this come down to a split-decision — and possibly the fight of the night.
Keys to victory:
Sell: You’ve never finished an opponent by KO or TKO, so don’t try to do it here. Work some of that Serra jiu-jitsu to keep position and pepper him with punches from different angles. Make him work and he’ll gas by the third.
Brown: Sell can be finished if you land it clean. Repeated viewings of his Nate Quarry and Scott Smith fights are recommended. Do a Jack Ryan and keep an eye out for the subs.
Prediction: Sell by split-decision
Matt “The Hammer” Hamill (5-2) vs. Mark “The Philippine Wrecking Machine” Munoz (5-0)
This is going to be an interesting fight because for the first time in his career, Matt Hamill may not have the advantage in wrestling. “The Hammer” has seven professional fights to his credit … all under the UFC banner. After being medically sidelined before the semifinals of TUF 3, he debuted for the promotion at the finale in June 2006 and was victorious with a first round technical knockout stoppage of Jesse Forbes. Hamill has also defeated Seth Petruzelli, Tim Boetsch and Reese Andy inside the Octagon. His two losses came at UFC 75: “Champion vs. Champion” in a very controversial split-decision to Michael Bisping and at UFC 88: “Breakthrough” in a third round technical knockout to Rich Franklin – a fight in which he all but abandoned the takedown. Now he must abandon it once again in favor of stuffing it. Munoz turned some heads with two strong showings under the WEC banner in 2008. The ridiculously-talented collegiate wrestling champion from Oklahoma State University debuted for the promotion at WEC 34: “Sacramento,” scoring an impressive first round technical knockout win over the 13-3 Chuck Grigsby. Six months later he was back in action on the WEC 37: “Torres vs. Tapia” card. And, again, he was impressive with a first round technical knockout, this time over WEC newcomer Ricardo Barros. That being said, this is a big step up in competition, and I don’t know if his striking is up to par. “The Philippine Wrecking Machine” may be the more decorated wrestler, but that means nothing if Hamill can stuff the shoot and utilize his surprisingly effective striking. This has the potential to be very boring if it turns into a wrestling match, but I don’t believe Hamill is going that route. Four of his five wins have come by way of TKO – and I think ol’ Hammer-head has a taste for it. Tuck that chin and re-rack, Mr. Munoz.
Keys to victory:
Hamill: Don’t let some guy from the WEC come in and push you around. Stuff him early and often and you may mentally break him. Then it’s time to physically break him with some dirty boxing.
Munoz: Stay out of the clinch and away from the fence. You may be able to get him to the ground, but will you be able to keep him there? Takedowns are worth points, assuming you can secure them.
Prediction: Hamill by unanimous decision
Jim Miller (13-1) vs. Gray “The Bully” Maynard (6-0)
Two more wrestlers, very different results. Well, not really. Jim Miller recently endeared himself to both the UFC and MMA fans when he filled in for an injured Frank Edgar to derail Matt Wiman at UFC Fight Night 16: “Fight for the Troops” on December 10. Why so special? He took the fight on just eight days notice, after Thanksgiving and having just returned from his honeymoon — and looked sharp while doing it. He uses wrestling well with his jiu-jitsu, ending 9 of his 13 fights by way of tapout. He’s definitely a good wrestler, unfortunately Maynard is better. And “The Bully” is strong — especially for a lightweight. Maynard has strung together four straight wins inside the Octagon since his participation on season five of The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 5, including a unanimous decision over the previously unbeaten Frank Edgar at UFC Fight Night 13 in April 2008. He’s an unstoppable force and while he has yet to be able to take that next step and develop the ability to finish from the top, it doesn’t make it any less suffocating. Miller’s only chance is a stingy defense coupled with a proactive guard. It’s not out of the realm of possibility to see Miller score the submission, but he’ll have to do it in the third round after a very busy first and second when Maynard may not have as much strength to power out of it. When all is said and done, I expect Maynard to have complete control in this one, though a finish would go a long way in stripping him of some of those negative labels his wrestling-based victories have given him.
Keys to victory:
Miller: Keep an active guard and wear him down. Elbows from the bottom can do damage as well as score points. Take what you can get.
Maynard: Keep doing what you’ve done since your debut: Overpower him and grind out the win. Don’t get lured into a false sense of security, his nine submission wins didn’t come by accident.
Prediction: Maynard by unanimous decision
That’s a wrap, folks.
Remember to come check us out after the show for all the latest results, recaps and our coverage of UFC 96 “Jackson vs. Jardine.”
What do you think? Now it’s your turn … let us have it in the comments section and share your thoughts and picks for Saturday’s event.
94 Comments »



















same pics here except Carwin with the KO
Jesse,
I liked your breakdowns so much I actually considered purchasing this PPV for a couple of minutes.
Excellent analysis.
Thanks.
Then you came to your senses right?
I’m really not one to be able sit at home and not purchase a PPV. I dont think this one is worth the cost, so I really wouldnt WANT to purchase it. Luckily, I have a family function that may run late so if anything I moght look it up online when I get home.
Mexi-
Yup. Not gonna buy it. Might watch it at a bar, though.
Same here. Might end up being a good card, but not worth the $50.
Also not buying it, but definitely headed to a bar. You’ll spend $10 for the cover and $15 for two beers. What a bargain.
im not buying it!
I won’t buy it since it’s absolutely free here in this run-down country of ours…Well anyway, you got 2 picks wrong Jesse James. It’s Munoz via wrecking ball and Brown via grit. WAR Wrecking Machine!
So Jardine could become the first fighter ever to beat 3 ex-UFC champions?, besides Fedor(Arlovski, Sylvia, Nog), which I think Jardines accomplishment would be more impressive.
I think Fedor got Randleman too. Anyways Jardine’s would have happened in a shorter time frame.
Couture did it too, ya know what…just dont read my posts….point is Jardine will have an impressive resume
LOL c-war! On one hand, Im not a fan of Page so I want Jardine to win. But on the other, I think Page can put Rashad to sleep! (which I want to see so bad) So Im kinda torn in this fight.
Fedor got Coleman too if I’m not mistaken.
Hi guys! Im john, I will act like a little girl if anybody says that Jardine will beat Page. Thats how I am. I turn into a little girl when someone talks bad about Page or my lover Fedor. BEWARE I WILL SCRATCH YOUR EYES OUT!
LOL…you must have some serious hate for him. Why not just insult him with your own screen name? Why hide?
JV, I feel the same way about this fight. I really want to see Rashad/Page just to see Rashad get KTFO, but I also don’t care for Rampage. Hopefully it is just a good fight and finally I won’t be dissapointed after an event since it seems like all my guys have been losing lately and since I don’t love anyone on this card.
I got money on Hammil and Page in a parlay…
besides that, I hope Brown beats Sell. I don’t like Sell. Then Carwin, and I hope Miller makes the fight exciting. Maybe they should’ve held off on that fight till 8 days before, then told Jim, “Oh yeah, you got a fight next week. Just so ya know.” Maybe he’ll do just as good as he did against Wiman. I’ve always picked against Maynard though, and I don’t know why, I actually like the guy, but Miller upset my boy Wiman, so I don’t know. Heres to a good fight.
Who’s the John imposter? It has confused me a few times like the other day when a John was posting some wacky stuff and I presumed it was the imposter when it actually turned out John was just high lol!
Munoz’s striking is not up to par? WTF?!? I seriously burst out laughing when i read that. Since when can hamill strike?
nah Mean Ojr? Dont you haters feel safe enough behind your computer screen to actually insult me with your own name? YOu need extra anonymity by using my name! Thats a Bitch move!
To the fake john, be a man dude! Have the balls to use your own screen name. It isn’t your real name anyway. Come up with somethin’ original, like “The Negation”. I may not have come up with it myself[I got it from my heavy metal friend, who's also into MMA] but at least it sounds original. So please, stop using “john”. You’re sucha loser.
good event, I think i’ll stream it. I think if Jardine sticks with the leg kicks, he has a shot, but I’m picking Jackson.
Carwin has a good shot, but I’m picking Gonzaga.
sell will win, and I hope the deaf prick loses again!
I don’t quite understand why the UFC will waste 15 minutes of the main card with Maynard, especially with Vera and even grove on the card.
Vera is in detention for crappy performances.
Whats wrong with Grove Kevin? He doesnt put on bad fights. Hes got alot of talent. His problem has been training with BJ. He got lazy, but he seems to be back on track and doing better.
that was my point, I’d rather see grove or vera over maynard. sorry if I wasn’t clear!
My fault homie, I didnt read it right.
no biggie, point is who besides his mom wants to see maynard fight???
I was thinking the same thing about Grove – I think he puts on solid fights. Vera should be fighting in the parking lot…
that sounds funny… “hes training with BJ Penn so hes been losing!” lol! eating chips and doing 40oz curls from the liquor store isnt a great workout? who knew?
Grove starting training at penns camp fairly recently. He only did before the Tanner fight and he won
Agree w/ Kevin. Rather see Vera and/or Grove than Maynard.
Next fight should be Maynard vs. Guida. Call it the Barney match and see who can give the biggest hug.
Hahaha…
Guida is fighting Diego at the TUF9 Finale
i don’t know about good i guess, its not one i will buy but i will watch it.i agree with your picks and see it the same i do hope miller beats gray more than anything.
agree with all but I think Carwin takes it by TKO
i hope its not that many decisions. gonzaga is definitely the better fighter, but he tends to wain under a determined opponent. if carwin survives round 1, he’ll take a 3rd round tko. i think hamill can get the tko as well.
decision, decision, decison, split decison, TKO….awesome another UFC 94
Jardine
Carwin
Brown
Hamill
Maynard
Jackson (t)ko round 2
Carwin Knockout rd 2
Sell via submission rd 3
Munoz(He is badass and noone knows it yet) UD
Maynard via(suprising)Knockout rd 1
Gonzaga is a big fat wet loose vagina. watch him get crushed tommorow.
comparing gonzaga to your mom is a weird thing to do!!
Kev.. that was wrong.. =)
i laughed, like dana said “glad i’m here to amuse myself.”
..but funny.
Zing!
Oh no lol.
daym, like Borat’s wife, who’s vagine hang loose like “sleeve of wizard”.
I think that carwin will destroy gonzaga, carwin will control this fight and dominate gonzaga everywhere, stand up, ground, clinch, carwin will prove to be to much for gonzaga. Carwin via round one tko stoppage.
Watch Gonzaga’s will get broken like he has in the past.
Very possible. But unlikely since I think he’s the one who should be doin’ the breaking. carwin has the possibility to get broken since it’s the 1st time he’s gonna face someone like Napao.
Did I read that right where you said Hammill has surprisingly effective stand-up? He’s freaking terrible. I’m all for equal opportunity and whatnot, but that guy has no business in the UFC.
I would like to ask this… Who has Gonzaga ever beat??? Justin McCully, LMAO, old Crop Cop??? I’m not buying his hype. Every time he has fought a top fighter he has folded. We have not seen Carwin do anything but destroy everyone. He is for real and I expect Gabe to fold once again. Carwin by TKO!
Rampage
Carwin
Sell
Hamill (don’t even care)
Miller (because I fuc*ing hate Maynard)
I agree, but look at his killer instinct…cro cop was out, he still went in for the kill, and he never gave up against couture, and he was getting killed. part of me says over rated, part of me likes him!
Yeah I feel much the same about him. Really can’t call this one.
And I would pose a counter question BNF…who has Carwin ever beat???
Nobody either… I am basing this on the fact that neither has really beat a top notch guy (and don’t give me Cro Crap), but we have seen Gabe crumble.
Shane Carwin is a nobody that knocks out nobodies…Gonzaga is going to destroy him..but carwin does have a good chance..anyone with good stand up can knock out anyone
Which is it? He’s going to destroy him or he has a good chance? Those two statements seem pretty incompatible. And BNF, Cro Crop is about 100 times better than anyone Carwin has beaten. Even in his over the hill stage.
i agree with all but i think jackson is going to make a highlight reel of jardine countering a legkick similar to irvin vs silva..
randy, do you think Jackson is quick enough to catch the kick like Silvia or do you think he’ll just counter with a bomb? I tend to think the later, as I don’t think he is quick enough to catch a kick.
idk dude look how fast rampage was to counter wandi,and chuck, i think rampages speed is underrated
yes, Rampage is definetly faster than Wanderlei “stiff” Silva and Liddell.. also, Jardine isn’t the fastest around
i think keith is a great fighter don’t get me wrong guys but rampage wont lose again just to good and i never was at all a rampage fan or supporter i even picked forrest to upset him but the facts are the facts, jardine isn’t strong enough or fast enough to beat page, and its only a 3 round fight if it does go the distance jardine won’t be able to legkick his way to victory like forrest did
Does anyone else get the feeling that Jardine is the ginnie pig for Mr. Evans? He fights Griffen before Evans, he fights Chuck before Evans and now possibly Rampage before Evans. It almost seems like then send in Jardine to form a gameplan for Evans.
Yeah, I like Rashad but I do think it’s either a bitch move(smart, but bitch made) or a very odd coincidence that Jardine fights all his top opponents before he does.
jardine fought griffin like 2 years ago though,and jardine fought chuck then rashad was set to fight james irvin but james had to backout setting up chuck vs rashad..
this time around i see it being a bitch move but the other ones are just coincedences that played out to rashads favor
Yeah definitely. You can watch a tonne of tape on an opponent but I’ve been told that when you get in there and actually fight them you can learn so much more, especially their timing. If Jardine can pick up Rampage’s timing that could a huge help for Rashad. Suppose Rashad learns nothing if Rampage goes out a puts Jardine out straight off the bat like he did to Wanderlei.
Kinda like Koscheck always fights opponents right before Fitch? Hmmm…. interesting conspiracy theory.
Do not agree with Jackson staying on the outside, he needs to get inside, use his speed and blast straight through Jardine’s looping punches. I agree with Gonzaga prediction.
Miller will win.
Good stuff, but I like Jackson by KO, Brown by a LATE 3rd round TKO in what will be ONE HECK OF A FIGHT, Miller via a BEATDOWN (lopsided decision or a finish), and Hamill via TKO in a thriller.
This card is ABSOLUTELY LOADED, and ANYONE who’s got beef with any of these fights on the main card needs to crawl in a hole and SHUT UP, because these fights happen inside the octagon, NOT ON PAPER! Only a true MMA fan would realize that.
I admire your fanhood and I am generally like you in that regard. There are just a few problems with this card. The obvious no title on the line. Also, the wrestler vs wrestler on the main card can be bad sometimes as well as Maynard is proven to be boring. One more thing, this card lacks stars or personality. Rampage is the only person that people really show emotion for good or bad. What really makes a good card is when people care about the fighter. I am personally not that excited because non of my favorite fighters are on this card. With all that said, I will still buy it and sit back and enjoy the fights since I don’t really care who wins either way and just hope for some good scraps.
“absolutely loaded?”
if hammill and maynard were flip flopped onto the under card (non televised) and grove and vera moved to televised, I may be on board, but I just don’t see it! I too do do admire your enthusiasm!
u suck!
please elaborate?? I don’t get why?
Hamill – “utilize his surprisingly effective striking” LOL! Surely you jest…
No kidding. I said the same thing a few posts up. Hammill sucks.
Rampage by TKO, Rnd 2
Gonzaga by Un.Dec.
Sell by Split Dec.
Hamill by Un. Dec.
Miller by Sub, Rnd 2
I don’t get how you give Jackson a decision win! I don’t see that at all. If the fight goes three rounds, Rampage didn’t show up. Jardine has no chin what so ever. That’s why he has those stupid pubes on his chin. He doesn’t shave because he could knock himself out shaving. I just hope that someone, if not Jackson himself, is smart enough to identify that little leg kick hole in Jackson’s game.
jackson – ko
carwin – tko
munoz – decision
maynard – decision
sell – tko
vera- ko
boestch – tko
mcrory – sub
grove – sub
riley – ko
Boetch via impalement and barbeque.
Jardine by split decision
Gonzaga by submission
only 2 fights i care about
you only care about these fights cuz you’re an imposter for a fan. This whole card is loaded and you only care about THOSE fights?! Goodness gracious, get your head out of the sand.
“imposter fan” haha. i know more in my left pinky then you know about MMA. those other fights are all of “undercard quality”!
zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
I signed up for the UFC newsletter earlier this week, but don’t have any code or whatever to buy UFC 98 tix…I’m guessing there’s some sort of timeframe before they send you that and I should’ve signed up a long time ago to get the early ticket purchase option? You guys know the answer to that? Never bought UFC tix before obviously. Hopefully, there will be some “cheap” ones available tomorrow for the general public. No idea how long those tickets generally stay available.
they give you a code at the sign up…. its your unique code for buying tix for US events…
it’ll have sumthing like UJKK89USL (US)
thats your presale code for buying tix, i know i got confused too… but i do indeed have my floor level tix now
Loaded with shit other than the page fight.
goodness gracious……..LMAO!!!!
I’m surprised with how many people are taking Carwin over Gonzaga.
I predict Gonzaga by submission. If Gabe keeps it standing he has a chance still but much less in my opinion. I think this is a dangerous fight for him that he needs to resort back to his foundation for.
im not sure rampage need to “keep the distance”. he needs to get all up in keith’s ish early and knock him out via wandy and houston style.
keith needs to keep the distance with leg kicks and not trade with rampage.
Agreed.
Rampage has always been weak to guys that kick. His last losses are to Griffin, Wanderlei (2x), and Shogun.
The clinch is Jardine’s weakness. Quinton and Alexander hit at about the same velocity, so Keith needs to stay away from those close quartered melees.
I still expect Rampage to take this one early in the first.
Maynard = decision if he wins….yay. another hugfest where he throws occasional elbows, short punches from half-guard for 3 rounds.