UFC Fight Night 16: “Fight for the Troops” is set to go down at the Crown Coliseum in Fayetteville, N.C., TONIGHT (Wednesday, December 10). The television event airs LIVE on Spike TV at 8 p.m. ET.

Remember: MMAmania.com will provide LIVE updates and blow-by-blow, round-by-round commentary of the main card action throughout the three-hour telecast. As usual, it promises to be a great discussion during an exciting line up of fights.

To get us pumped for the festivities, MMAmania.com Editor and Senior Writer Jesse Holland (that’s me) will be breaking down the main event matches and revealing each fighter’s keys to victory.

If you’re looking for an unbiased and objective examination of each contest, then I’m happy to report you will be extremely disappointed.

Why else do you think I would depose the former contributors and take this act solo like the selfish blowhard you already know me to be?

But enough about me, at least for the time being.

Let’s get cracking:

Josh Koscheck (11-3) vs. Yoshiyuki Yoshida (10-2)

Josh Koscheck may be at a turning point in his career. Coming off a lopsided unanimous decision loss to the ever-improving Thiago Alves at UFC 90, “Kos” has to prove that he still belongs at the top of the welterweight contender list. Granted, the fight against “Pitbull” was on short notice, but two straight losses in a division with this much depth is as good as a pink slip when it comes to title considerations … especially after already getting a crack at Georges St. Pierre — now the current division kingpin — and coming up short. While we didn’t see much of it at UFC 90, Kos had repeatedly demonstrated that he’s a tremendous wrestler who can take down just about anyone at will. He’s also starting to utilize that position more effectively as we saw in his drubbing of Chris Lytle at UFC 86. The “X” factor for me in this fight in his confidence. Yoshihiro Yoshida is not your average import. Anyone expecting the mundane style of Ryo Chonan or the antics of Akihiro Gono are in for a big surprise. “Zenko” is a smashing machine with an impeccable Judo resume. He made his mark in Cage Force so he not only knows how to fight inside a cage, he’s adept at using elbows, too. He’s also the man, who in his stateside debut at UFC 84, choked Jon Koppenhaver so hard that the self-proclaimed “War Machine” woke up the next morning ranting about burning villages in the Philippines and stabbing total strangers. Yoshida may still have a chip on his shoulder after getting burned by Karo Parisyan in their scrapped bout at UFC 88, and I fully expect him to try and take it out on Koscheck. Unfortunately, I don’t think Kos has recovered mentally from his loss to Alves and I predict he’ll be outclassed en route to his second straight unanimous decision loss.

Keys to victory:

Koscheck: Your wrestling will neutralize his Judo IF you can use it explosively. Failed shots that push him into the cage or keep it standing will result in you doing a 720 into the mat … head first. He’s strong enough to get back to his feet so be prepared to shoot ad nauseam. To top it off he knows submissions, so like a ‘64 Boston prostitute, beware of the choke.

Yoshida: The K-man may still be rattled from his loss to Alves. Open up with a devastating leg kick or a stiff shot to the head and you can break him in the first round. You may find yourself on your back if he brings his A-game, so give us your best Motoman SDA10 impersonation and use those elbows.

Prediction: Yoshida by unanimous decision

Mike Swick (12-2) vs. Jonathan Goulet (22-9)

Mike Swick is back after his unanimous decision victory over Marcus Davis at UFC 85 to take on the man with the worlds worst hairdo. Swick has gone to a decision in his last four fights and I think it’s starting to get under his skin. He was cruising right along at middleweight, winning five straight until a tough loss to Yushin Okami at UFC 69 convinced him he needed to drop down to 170 pounds. I thought he looked a little flat in a winning effort against Josh Burkman at Fight Night 12 but seemed to get his groove back in the impressive win over Davis. “Swicking out” notwithstanding, I expect to see more of the same against Goulet. “The Road Warrior” is definitely a game opponent. And he knows how to put on a show as we saw in his UFC 83 “Fight of the Night” against Kuniyoshi Hironaka. That being said, I can’t erase the memories of him going down against Duane Ludwig at Fight Night 3 or Josh Koscheck at Fight Night 6. Both Swick and Goulet are talented strikers but for my money Swick has cleaner, more refined stand-up and his combinations are rock solid. I don’t expect this one to go to the ground. In fact I don’t expect it to get out of the first round. While both deny it, I still think there is a little bad blood between the two. In early 2007 Swick was offered Goulet as an opponent and he passed, feeling Goulet wasn’t good enough to be in the cage with him. Goulet proceeded to call Swick out on the Internet for turning down the fight and like most men, Swick’s ego wasn’t going to take the high road. Originally scheduled for September 2007 until Swick pulled out with a rib injury, they finally get the opportunity to throw down and Swick gets the chance to prove that he was right, that Goulet isn’t good enough to hang with him. In this case, I happen to agree.

Keys to victory:

Swick: First there was “Swickotine,” then there was “Swicking-out.” What’s next, getting your ass “Swicked?” Forget about the cutsie nicknames and do what you do best: Throw leather. The highlight reel is calling …

Goulet: Swick is vulnerable when you take him out of his comfort zone. Get him to focus on your hair and he may be distracted long enough to get knocked out.

Prediction: Swick by TKO

Steve Cantwell (6-1) vs. Razak Al-Hussan (5-0)

This is our “Welcome to the UFC” bout. Former WEC light heavyweight champion Steve Cantwell is going to lock horns with Razak Al-Hussan and because Al-Hassan represents the unknown, I have to pick him as my choice for winner … though its hard to pick against a guy whose nickname is “Robot”. While four of Al-Hassan’s six wins have come via submission, the Brown Belt in Tae Kwon Do is very dangerous on his feet (I guess we know who Rogan is rooting for). Thanks to Lyoto Machida, Karate is the new jiu-jitsu and Al-Hassan is going to make us believers again. Cantwell has been on a bigger stage and had bigger fights, including an impressive stoppage over Brian Stann at WEC 35, but I can see him overextending himself to try and make an impression in his UFC debut. Both fighters are well rounded and while stylistically this is a good match-up, I think in the end Al-Hassan’s typically calm and relaxed demeanor will allow him to strategically pick Cantwell apart en route to an early stoppage.

Keys to victory:

Cantwell: Don’t worry, you’re not the only one who doesn’t know much about Al-Hassan. Make him come to you and let him show you his cards. How good are you at making a game plan on the fly? Even if you get annihilated, you still come from the same town as Sheri’s Ranch and that makes you a winner in my book.

Al-Hassan: You’ve got everyone in the dark about what you can and can’t do. That means you can try just about anything and we’d probably believe you meant to do it. That includes getting knocked out so take it slow and keep him guessing.

Prediction: Al-Hassan by TKO

Nate Loughran (9-0) vs. Tim Credeur (10-2)

Tim Credeur is riding his TUF 7 fame — and a win over fellow castmate Cale Yarbrough — into the UFC for another Fight Night appearance. I’m afraid this one won’t go as planned as he faces the submission machine Nate Loughran. Credeur is a likable guy, and he’s competent in striking and Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. Unfortunately competent only gets you so far and Credeur was bested by Psycho the Monkey and CB Dolloway while on The Ultimate Fighter Season 7. The win over Yarbrough at Fight Night 14 is not enough to convince me he can get past Loughran. Aside from his impressive debut, also at Fight Night 14, Loughran is a perfect 9-0 with eight of those wins coming by way of submission. He’s got great cardio and deceptively crisp striking. He also submitted Phil Collins at Cage Combat FC in 2007, presumably for his role as Roland Copping in “Frauds”. Expect Credeur to fight by-the-numbers until things eventually hit the ground. From there, Loughran will dismantle the TUF vet for his ninth submission win.

Keys to victory:

Credeur: Plan on doing more standing than the Queen’s Guard. You have a decent ground game, but do you really want to test it against a guy with eight submission wins in two years? Swing early and often.

Loughran: You’ve used more triangles than Euclid and I’m a firm believer that if it ain’t broke, you’re not trying hard enough. Lest anyone thinks you’re one-dimensional, you can always drag him into the third round and pound him out when he stops breathing from exhaustion.

Prediction: Loughran by submission

Jim Miller (12-1) vs. Matt Wiman (10-3)

The new and improved Matt Wiman is looking to make it five straight inside the Octagon when he clashes with the ruthless Jim Miller. Wiman has been impressive since his stint on The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 5, finishing three of four fights and winning them all. He demonstrated dangerous knockout power with a second round upset of Thiago Tavares at UFC 85: “Bedlam” back in June of this year. His only loss was to Spencer Fisher way backat UFC 60 (Has it really been 31 PPV’s since Hughes pummeled Gracie???). Anyway, “Handsome” is looking good as of late and is probably the sentimental favorite, but I think he’s in over his head against Miller. This will mark the second fight inside the Octagon for Miller — he scored an impressive third round submission over David Baron at UFC 89: “Bisping vs. Leben” on October 18 in his promotional debut. Prior to the big win, Miller plied his trade primarily in smaller shows throughout New Jersey. In fact, his only loss was a unanimous decision to none other than Frank Edgar, the man he’s replacing in this fight. He holds a notable win over the very tough and experienced Bart Palaszewski via unanimous decision under the International Fight League (IFL) banner back in April and a staggering nine of his 12 wins are by submission. The only shot I give Wiman in this bout is a Tavares-like KO. Wiman is good, no question, but I think Miller is a whole lot better.

Keys to victory:

Wiman: See Credeur, Tim.

Miller: Use your excellent wrestling to take Wiman down and then do what you’ve done so many times before– submit him like a 1040. Be careful, he’s got power and a whole ‘lotta momentum so don’t get greedy or try to showboat.

Prediction: Miller by submission

That’s a wrap, folks. For the complete UFC Fight Night 16: “Fight for the Troops” fight card click here. Remember to come check us out after the show for the latest results, recaps and thoughts on Wednesday’s fights.

What do you think? Now it’s your turn … let’s have it in the comments section and share your thoughts and picks for Fight Night 16.

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December 10th, 2008     53 Comments

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53 Comments »

Comment by mike
2008-12-10 10:13:08

can someone tell me how yoshida is going to stop koscheck’s shot?

has anyone seen any of his fights other than war machine?

Comment by john
2008-12-10 10:35:29

Easy, he will use Kos’s aggression and momentum against him and throw Kos on his Head! Believe tHat!

Jesse: Its nice to see that you finally decided to pick an upset for once. its better then the usual pick EVERY single favorite approach that you usually take. I still dont like you for swager-Jacking my name…Hahah its all love!

Nice right up!

I got Yoshida as well!

BY the way, Kos is NOT leaving the UFC!

Comment by mike
2008-12-10 10:41:08

please watch his fights. his striking to clinch transition is seriously lacking. he will only be able to throw koscheck if kos leaves his hips right there. these aren’t quick explosive throws, he sets them up.

he doesn’t have one punch ko power, the only standing ko he has is from a punch barrage to the guy nick diaz destroyed in dream.

dan hardy took him down with ease when he shot, so did akira kikuchi. how is he gonna stop koscheck?

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Comment by ViolentMike
2008-12-10 12:34:15

Jesse usually got an underdog picked in his write ups, its James tha picks all the favorites – which he was 100% correct on the last event. (in related news, I hit my 5 fighter WEC parlay that I posted last week, did anyone bet with me?)

 
Comment by mike
2008-12-10 12:48:01

yeah, the last ufc and last wec events favorites hit hard.

in this one i think at least 3 underdogs are gonna win. rasak is tempting (being huge, submission fighter, i dont know much else about him), so is justin (eddie sanchez underwhelming as usual, and his added lbsage, and willingness to grind a decision for a win). but yoshida is unfathomable.

 
Comment by NameNotRequired
2008-12-10 14:34:49

mike- watch his fight with Katsuya Inoue. Serious damage with his dirty boxing. All he needs his judo skills is for his balance and base. If he can stuff Kos’ shots, then they’ll end up on the cage since kos himself has said that he needs to commit 100% on the TDs. You can see where am going from here.

 
Comment by ufcaddict
2008-12-10 18:13:57

john:

are u certain kos is stayin???
is it definate??

 
Comment by brendan
2008-12-10 18:33:24

i like your picks jesse but you couldnt be more wrong about wiman/miller… wiman had zero problems against tavares who is a very good grappler, he shouldnt have any problems against mr. “8day training camp” miller who will gas in the second and get TKO’d in the third!

 
Comment by john
2008-12-10 19:07:47

NO, nothing is definite~! Earlier in the week it sounded as if he were Gone, but today the temperature feels like he is staying.

Ultimately I think he will stay because he is a welterweight and he doesnt want to go through what Jake Sheilds goes through, being a top ranked welterweight with no one to fight since clearly all the top WW fight in the Octagon.

 
 
 
 
Comment by stinky~fingers
2008-12-10 10:20:09

im telling u all! this is the night of the hot~dogs!

the stink~man gots his money on

3k on yoshi

7k on goulet

500 bucks on tim

3k on wiman

1.5k on brodie

500 bucks on rees

1k on wolff

500 bucks on hartt

800 bucks on the insane bum

mostly under dogs~ say word!

Comment by stinky~fingers
2008-12-10 10:23:34

oops~ i left out razor razak over cantwell..

hassan will be too much~

 
Comment by NameNotRequired
2008-12-10 14:38:55

Goulet? Brodie? Credeur? Man, this is seriously bad betting man. The only live underdogs to bet are Yoshi and Wiman even though i think Jim will win. Also why bet everything? You parlaying anything?

Comment by ufcaddict
2008-12-10 18:16:35

omg goulet??? what a shocker be prepared to lose 7k

but wiman is a safe bet u gettin money back on that for sure

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Comment by brendan
2008-12-10 20:19:06

wiman and yoshida are good picks, and underdogs… even better

 
 
 
Comment by LOKIE
2008-12-10 20:43:40

Its cool to post your bets man, but seriously who gives a flying F*** how much your throwing down?

 
Comment by freestyle
2008-12-11 03:12:31

u got smoked

 
 
Comment by Graham
2008-12-10 10:22:19

If Josh Koscheck disappears after this fight, will anyone miss him?

Comment by RoB
2008-12-10 10:37:57

ofc! don’t be so much of a UFC lover, it’s the fighters that makes their business go around, will you miss the fighters when the UFC are out of good fights? cause they can’t have the same guys fighting eachother on every event..

Comment by Graham
2008-12-10 11:43:28

Uhh… that was a lot of confused delirium to pack into about 45 words.

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Comment by RoB
2008-12-10 12:53:42

I will miss him cause he always comes to fight, and that’s what it’s about.. it would be better if they released Machida

 
 
 
Comment by kevin
2008-12-10 10:44:45

no graham, no one will miss him!

 
Comment by DDT
2008-12-10 13:38:41

I will not miss him. His improved game still has way too much lay-n-pray when he’s in a tough fight. I am not really hoping that he goes away because it is fun having guys around that you hope lose. And I always hope that Kos loses.

 
 
Comment by Jarutski
2008-12-10 10:24:48

“so like a ‘64 Boston prostitute, beware of the choke.”

Beauteous poetry…

Comment by GregC
2008-12-10 13:27:38

Gotta agree. I think that’s the first time I’ve seen a Boston Strangler reference in an mma writeup. Well done Jesse.

 
Comment by the matt king
2008-12-10 14:26:53

“so like a ‘64 Boston prostitute, beware of the choke.” – Hill Air Ee Ous

 
Comment by the matt king
2008-12-10 14:28:57

“You’ve used more triangles than Euclid” was nearly as good.

 
Comment by the matt king
2008-12-10 14:32:12

Okay found the winner of the article: “submit him like a 1040.”

 
 
Comment by ViolentMike
2008-12-10 10:28:49

Is anyone else finding these fights very difficult to bet on???

Right now, all I have is a bet on Matt Wiman. Miller’s are known for taking fights on short notice, but 8 days, AFTER a Thanksgiving may be too much for Miller to overcome. If Matt Wiman continued to improve since his last fight, this fight is going to be great. Also, Jim Miller is a pretty small LW so Wiman will have the strength advantage, but he doesn’t want to be find himself laying in Miller’s guard.

Right now, some of the favorites are simply TOO big of favorites (Swick and Suanders and Kos) to bet on. So that usually means parlay, but I don’t see all of the big favorites winning. Perhaps a Yoshida/Swick/Saunders parlay?

Comment by stinky~fingers
2008-12-10 10:35:05

no parlays vm~

just pick 5 of the 10 fights and bet all dogs..

im telling u there will be around 7 dogs out of the 10 that will prevail.

howl at the moon bitches! its the night of the hot~dogs.

remember i said that~

 
Comment by john
2008-12-10 10:37:09

NOt easy to bet on at all because to big of favorites. I know I will throw a lil something something on Yoshida. I will bet Saunders because he is the Lock of the night and I w ont let those goofy odds scare me away!

I do like Wiman as well!

Comment by stinky~fingers
2008-12-10 10:39:11

wiman is a sure bet~

that kid is finally coming around.

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Comment by ViolentMike
2008-12-10 12:37:20

John, I’ve been liking a parlay involving Swick and Saunders. But I do not know who the 3rd will be.

 
Comment by GregC
2008-12-10 13:31:01

I like those 2 as part of a parlay, I would end it with Loughran. I see him as being a good underdog bet that would be favored in this fight if Credeur wasn’t more well known because of TUF. Al-Hassan would also make a good underdog bet, but as part of a parlay I like Loughran more.

 
Comment by john
2008-12-10 14:22:17

VM: THat is a good parlay, add Wiman on the back end and you r MONEY!

 
 
 
Comment by john
2008-12-10 10:37:25

btw, VM. Kos is staying in the UFC!

Comment by ViolentMike
2008-12-10 12:36:23

That’s what I thought. I was questioning the people that were saying it was his last fight in yesterday’s threads. I thought that Lorenzo and the Zilkin or whatever got it straightened out Fitch style. I know that Kos would not want to leave the UFC.

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Comment by ViolentMike
2008-12-10 12:38:59

I also wish I knew more about Nate Loughran. If his BJJ is better than Tim Credeur’s, then he must be a lock to win the fight if he has 2 healthy hands that he can strike with.

 
Comment by john
2008-12-10 14:22:48

cant help u out there, I know nothing about him!

 
Comment by GregC
2008-12-10 16:57:47

Loughran isn’t the biggest MW, but he is solid on his feet and on the ground. I see him beating Credeur wherever the fight takes place. He hasn’t faced any real big name fighters yet, but he’s beaten some solid guys. He’s also gave Johnny Rees his first ever loss in his UFC debut.

 
Comment by john
2008-12-10 18:03:19

THanks for the Intel GregC. Much appreciated. Crueder has some pretty good Jits, if you are saying Loughran has the advantage on the ground then he is to be taken serious for sure!

 
 
 
 
Comment by BNF
2008-12-10 10:52:47

Did you forget how good Wiman’s jits looked agaisn’t Tavares. That fight was much more than a 1 punch KO. It was all over the place. There is NO WAY Wiman gets subbed he is very well rounded and I think this is his time.

Yoshida
Swick
Cantwell
Cruder
Wiman

Comment by b.w.
2008-12-10 14:46:14

BNF-JV. meltzer just came out with a new report that ufc 91 lesnar/couture DID break a million ppv’s and could possibly beat lidell/ortiz as the all-time mma record. BOOM! sorry to get off topic.

Comment by BNF
2008-12-10 16:01:10

No sh*t… That is great news. And the fact that we saw all those fights with some good subs/KO’s, I think means alot of return WWE customers.

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Comment by b.w.
2008-12-10 17:55:38

i’m hoping those wwe fans convert to full time mma fans, but these are wrasslin fans were talking about.

 
Comment by brendan
2008-12-10 20:20:10

I know we dont like each other bnf but i agree with your wiman sentiments, hes taking this fight for sure

 
 
 
 
Comment by AK47
2008-12-10 11:03:08

Yoshida by whatever
Swick by whatever
Al by whatever
Crudeer by sub
Wiman by tko

 
Comment by Scott
2008-12-10 12:41:28

I think Koscheck is going to be too explosive and intense for Yoshida. I don’t think that short-notice Alves loss is going to affect his performance. He came back from St Pierre loss which must have been a lot more frustrating a loss for him and did very well.

 
Comment by snicket916
2008-12-10 13:04:39

kos-2nd round gnp tko
swick- 1st round choke
cantwell-1st round tko (bad mutherfuker, watch)
loughran- 2nd round tko (or triangle)
wiman- 2nd round tko

rashad evans by 2nd round beat down

 
Comment by dia mette
2008-12-10 13:10:18

I agree about kos’s confidence is threw another stratusphere right now

Mentally he feels he went toe to toe with the strongest WW. And he also took no damage from the champion back in thier fight.

Confidence = a very dangerous fighter

 
Comment by Jared
2008-12-10 16:07:41

probably the worst predictions ever

Comment by They Live
2008-12-10 17:41:55

How do you know that until the results come out

 
 
Comment by Ernesto
2008-12-10 16:39:34

Admittedly, I know very little about Al-Hussan, but I think you’re a bit quick in discounting Cantwell. From observing his WEC fights, he appeared to get markedly better with each and every fight (even the Stann loss). Adding to his skills, he has youth and an apparently built-in combo of confidence/ mean streak. I’ll have to go with Cantwell here.

 
Comment by TKO
2008-12-10 19:40:46

Yoshida decision 190
Swick tko stopage -400
Wiman submission -105
Luigi submission -400
Hill decision -350
Saunders tko -400

$600 to pay 390

I think I will get 5 out of 6 right

 
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