UFC Fight Night 15: “Diaz vs. Neer” is set to go down Wednesday, September 17, 2008, from the Omaha Civic Auditorium in Omaha, Nebraska. The television event airs LIVE on Spike TV at 8 p.m. ET.

Remember: MMAmania.com will provide LIVE updates and blow-by-blow, round-by-round commentary of the main card action throughout the telecast. As usual, it promises to be a great discussion during an exciting line up of fights.

To get us pumped for the festivities, MMAmania.com Editor and Senior Writer Jesse Holland (that’s me) will be breaking down the main event matches and revealing each fighter’s keys to victory.

If you’re looking for an unbiased and objective examination of each contest, then I’m happy to report you will be extremely disappointed.

Why else do you think I would depose the former contributors and take this act solo like the selfish blowhard you already know me to be?

But enough about me, at least for the time being.

Let’s get cracking:

Nate Diaz (9-2) vs. Josh “The Dentist” Neer (24-6-1)

There’s been a lot of talk lately about the growing number of TUF graduates evolving into top contenders and Season 5 winner Nate Diaz should be no exception. A disciple of Cesar Gracie like his brother Nick, the younger Diaz has an unorthodox striking attack that is complemented by an exceptional ground game. His last six wins have all come via submission and while he doesn’t have KO power, he can pepper you with strikes until the floor seems like a viable option. However as Kurt Pellegrino found out at Fight Night 13, it usually isn’t. Still, I’m not convinced that a veteran opponent like Josh Neer, who has three times the experience Diaz does, will fall into that trap. Neer also has the advantage of having faced Nick Diaz at UFC 62, giving him a pretty good idea of what to expect. “The Dentist” is 7-1 in his last eight fights and he’s stronger and more aggressive than Diaz. This is a very difficult fight to predict because any winning scenario presented (for both fighters) is plausible. In the end I can see Neer taking this one based on his ability to control the pace of the fight. If Neer can maintain a persistent yet controlled attack (and avoid getting triangled), he can pull this off.

Keys to victory:

Diaz: You’ve used more triangles than Euclid since your debut in 2004 and that’s why you’re going to ignore them here. Predictability is a precursor to defeat which is why a guillotine or rear naked choke is the submission of choice. Frustrate him and the opening will come.

Neer: Houston Alexander names you as the fighter he models himself after. You submitted Melvin Guillard with your forehead split in half and a mouthful of blood. Use that toughness to keep him on the defensive but don’t go for the finish unless you’re sure you can end it. That’s how a dominating victory turns into a submission loss.

Prediction: Neer by split decision

Clay “The Carpenter” Guida (23-9) vs. Mac Danzig (18-4-1)

It’s winner of The Ultimate Fighter 6 vs. the man they wouldn’t let on The Ultimate Fighter 5 in a battle for lightweight supremacy. Mac Danzig is an excellent fighter with great submission skills. Just ask him and he’ll be happy to tell you. Aside from his humility, Danzig does have talent. But will it be enough to overcome a madman like Clay Guida? For me this fight is a huge turning point in Danzig’s career. If he’s to be considered an elite lightweight, it’s not enough to whip out a submission after getting pummeled for two rounds ala Guida/Huerta at the finale for TUF 6. Danzig needs to repel the inevitable onslaught and finish it early. That’s no easy task against someone like Guida, who’s had some memorable wars and gone the distance against top lightweights like Marcus Aurelio, Tyson Griffin and Gilbert Melendez. Danzig on the other hand has only faced one decent lightweight in the past couple of years when he took on Hayato “Mach” Sakurai at PRIDE 33 and he ended up flat on his face. It’s not enough to say you’re the best, you have to actually prove it. Dominating a warrior like Clay Guida both on the feet and on the ground would be a helluva good start. Make or break time Mr. Danzig.

Keys to victory:

Guida: Keep the pressure on and take him out of his comfort zone. Pick him up and slam him against the cage like your putting up drywall. Rinse and repeat for three rounds – and please don’t give up your back.

Danzig: Avoid damage. Make him think that he’s one-dimensional by stuffing every attack. Crisp strikes and a sound defense will prove that it’s indeed finesse over fury.

Prediction: Danzig by submission

Ed “Short Fuse” Herman (14-6) vs. Alan “The Talent” Belcher (12-5)

This is an intriguing match-up for me because both fighters are 3-3 in the Octagon since their debuts in 2006. Are they destined to be .500 fighters or can they break out to the next level? The UFC middleweight division is stacked higher than a Jenga tower and is about as stable. If you have to share a weight class with Nate Marquardt, Dan Henderson and Anderson Silva, you had better be setting off fireworks every chance you get. Herman has shown to be a tough, well-rounded competitor, but he can be submitted by a good ground fighter. I don’t think that Belcher is strong enough on the ground to end it and I can’t see Herman going head first into a guillotine ala Sean Salmon, so this is going to be decided in the stand-up. Belcher needs to establish the jab and keep Herman out of the clinch. “Short Fuse” cut his teeth with Team Quest so you know he’s ready for some inside fighting. I’m not expecting a lengthy feeling-out process so Belcher had better be running on a full tank of gas. Herman had his first KO against a winded Joe Doerksen at UFC 78 and he’s already said he’s looking forward to his second. That might be playing into Belcher’s strength, but keep in mind “The Talent” has only been submitted once in 17 fights.

Keys to victory:

Herman: You won the consolation contract from Dana White and are 3-3 since your debut. It’s time to make a statement about your future. Hopefully that statement isn’t “I stink”. A little bloodlust goes a long way.

Belcher: Plan on spending a good amount of time being pushed into the cage. Utilize the knees and if you end up on the ground, think unorthodox when it comes to submissions. Remember that toe hold against Evert Fyeet? Exactly.

Prediction: Herman by unanimous decision

Houston “The Assassin” Alexander (8-3) vs. Eric “Red” Schafer (9-3-2)

Ladies and gentlemen we’ve finally reached our one-sided fight of the evening. If you haven’t been paying attention, Fight Night 15 is live from Omaha, the same city where Houston Alexander has his radio show on Power 106.9. Believe me when I tell you Houston Alexander is to Nebraska what Georges St. Pierre is to Canada. And don’t think for a second that the man with over 200 fights is going down to Eric Schafer in front of his home town. Not never. Granted, “Red” has a competent submissions game but I saw him fold up like a beach chair under the pressure of Michael Bisping and Stephan Bonnar. What’s going to happen when he has a raging bull come straight at him in front of an auditorium full of screaming Cornhuskers? Alexander needs this win badly. The loss to Thiago Silva is excusable, but the KO loss to James Irvin definitely did some damage to the mystique (or as Elitists would say, he was “Exposed”). No one expects an overnight evolution nor does he need one. Eric Schafer may come in a gamer, but he’s going out as game. Not to be too graphic, but the ringside spectators might want to bring a plastic tarp like the ones they used to whip out during a Gallagher concert.

Keys to victory:

Alexander: Swing for the fences. You’re too strong and too vicious for anything he has to offer. A chokeslam like you had at UFC 78 would send the crowd into a frenzy.

Schafer: Not since Bugsy Malone and Leroy Smith has there been such an odd pairing. Speaking of Malone, maybe you can fight dressed like one of Dandy Dan’s hoodlums. Just make sure your insurance is up-to-date.

Prediction: Alexander by KO

That’s a wrap, folks. For the complete UFC Fight Night 15: “Diaz vs. Neer” fight card click here. Remember to come check us out after the show for the latest results, recaps and thoughts on Wednesday’s fights.

What do you think? Now it’s your turn … let’s have it in the comments section and share your thoughts and picks for Fight Night 15.