UFC 88: "Breakthrough" is set for tomorrow (Saturday) night, September 6 from the Philips Arena in Atlanta, Georgia. The pay-per-view (PPV) event airs LIVE at 10 p.m. ET.
Remember: MMAmania.com will provide LIVE updates and blow-by-blow, round-by-round commentary of the main card action throughout the telecast. As usual, it promises to be a great discussion during an amazing line up of fights.
To get us pumped for the festivities, MMAmania.com Editor and Senior Writer Jesse Holland (that’s me) will be breaking down the main event matches and revealing each fighter’s keys to victory.
If you’re looking for an unbiased and objective examination of each contest, then I’m happy to report you will be extremely disappointed.
Why else do you think I would depose the former contributors and take this act solo like the selfish blowhard you already know me to be?
But enough about me, at least for the time being.
Let’s get cracking:
Nate "The Great" Marquardt (26-8-2) vs. Martin "Hitman" Kampmann (16-2)
Despite being 13-1 with ten stoppages, Martin Kampmann is the UFC middleweight division's forgotten son. Some blame the layoff in 2007 but it's easy to get overlooked in a world ruled by the Silva Dynasty. Now "The Hitman", whose only loss came via a cut against Andrei Semenov at the M-1middleweight grand prix back in 2004, will try and make a statement at UFC 88 against fellow underappreciated middleweight Nate Marquardt. Nate didn't look "Great" against Anderson Silva (Who does?) but unfortunately that's how many people remember him. Marquardt has competent stand-up and above average submissions, but is it enough to overcome the younger, craftier Kampmann? Nate's experience is definitely a factor, as well as his submissions, but I also can't overlook the fact that almost half of his fights go to a decision. That could be the deciding factor in this bout because Kampmann can take a punch (McFedries - UFC 68) and has the ability to stay as cool as a cucumber in some fairly precarious situations (Leites - TUF 4 Finale). I see this as a close fight but I'm giving the edge to Kampmann based on his takedown/submission defense and more refined striking. This is one star that will continue to rise. Even in the first, slight edge in the second, domination in the third. Kampmann by unanimous decision.
Keys to victory:
Marquardt: It's time to go Robert Van Winkle and take a little something from Bowie. If you can get Kampmann "Under Pressure" and keep him there, you can squeak out the decision. Beware of the overhand right.
Kampmann: Many think you belong in the division's top five and steamrolling a veteran like Marquardt is a good way to prove it. Don't play cat-and-mouse. Find your range and fire at will - but watch out for that pesky knee - he knows how to use it.
Prediction: Kampmann by unanimous decision
Karo "The Heat" Parisyan (18-5) vs. Yoshiyuki "Zenko" Yoshida (10-2)
If Karo Parisyan thought it was tough to get a title shot before, imagine what a loss to Yoshiyuki Yoshida will do to his chances. This is a make or break fight for the Armenian and he knows it. Physically, he looks better than ever, but considering his recent admission of panic attacks coupled with the TKO loss to Thiago Alves at Fight Night 13 and I have to wonder if Karo will be mentally prepared for someone as ruthless as Yoshida. Despite his excellent judo, "Zenko" has 80% of his wins come by either (T)KO or submission. Styles do make fights, so what is the consensus on a fighter who usually finishes vs. a fighter who usually goes the distance? I can't say for sure, but what I do know is that "The Heat" is extremely talented. Aside from his experience (which is plentiful), this is a guy who's fought some of the world's best including current welterweight deity Georges St. Pierre, former lightweight champion Sean Sherk and The Ultimate Fighter winner Diego Sanchez. There's just no substitute for that kind of on-the-job training (something Yoshida doesn't have) and that's why I see him pulling this one out. It wouldn't surprise me to see Karo in trouble early against an aggressive striker like Yoshida, but once he figures out that he's the better fighter and gets in his comfort zone, it's going to be a clinic in rounds two and three.
Keys to victory:
Parisyan: Forget your cornerman, bring a shrink. If you can rid yourself of the Alves fight and be secure in your abilities, you'll be tossing Yoshida around like socks in a dryer. Take Kuato's advice and open your mind.
Yoshida: Looks like Akihito's birthday is coming early this year and as a present you get Karo Parisyan - complete with damaged psyche. You'll only have one round to enjoy it so go for the kill early and often. Anything out of the first and you're at the mercy of the Kami.
Prediction: Parisyan by unanimous decision
Dan "Hollywood" Henderson (22-7) vs. Rousimar "Toquinho" Palhares (8-1)
Is anyone else tired of hearing about how wonderful Rousimar Palhares is? The man has sensational jits, no doubt about it. But people are carrying on like he submitted Fedor at UFC 84 and not Ivan Salaverry. At UFC 88 he'll face Dan Henderson, a gladiator who may have competed against more A-level talent than anyone in this sport. True, Hendo can be submitted as he was against Anderson Silva, but "Hollywood" also holds wins over some of the world's best Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belts. He outpointed current UFC heavyweight champion Antonio Rodrigo "Minotauro" Nogueira at King of Kings and is the only man to knock out Renzo Gracie when he did it at PRIDE 13. He has KO power, Olympic-caliber wrestling and rock-solid cardio. "Toquinho" may have the grappling, but it isn't anything Henderson hasn't already seen on multiple occasions. Dangerous Dan is too well-rounded, too smart and much too experienced to give Palhares anything for free. And does anyone think the Brazilian has the kind of striking to give him pause? Not only is Henderson going to grind him into little pieces, he's going to remind fans around the world how important it is to bring your mixed with your martial arts. Sorry Toquinho, you may own the ground, but Henderson owns everything else - including you.
Keys to victory:
Henderson: If I may plagiarize Vinnie Mac - It's time for a little ruthless aggression. Get in his face and punish him. Take him out of his comfort zone and use your knees on the ground. The only time he should be allowed to gather his thoughts is in between rounds. It's clobberin' time!
Palhares: You're not going to knock him out and you're not going to outpoint him. You have a gift for joint manipulation and it's time to go for broke. He may not make a mistake unless you let him. How good are you at playing possum?
Prediction: Henderson by TKO
Rich "Ace" Franklin (23-3) vs. Matt "The Hammer" Hamill (4-1)
Matt Hamill is tough, but perhaps a little too tough for his own good. I don't think it's unreasonable to call this a bad match-up for Hamill, who's definitely come a long way since sleepwalking his way through The Ultimate Fighter 3. But against Rich Franklin? We're talking about a guy who was one win away from cleaning out an entire division. At 23-3, the former middleweight champ has only lost to two men: One of them is still undefeated and the other is a 185lb Jason Voorhees. Franklin may not have the best takedown defense but when and if Hamill can get him to the ground, what is he going to do with him? Submissions? Out of the question. If Lutter and Okami couldn't finish "Ace" then what chance does a 4-1 Hamill have? I'm also not convinced "The Hammer" has the conditioning to stay competitive through the third round, especially if he empties the tank with repeated takedown attempts in the first. Franklin on the other hand went twenty-five minutes against David Loiseau at UFC 58 without even breaking a sweat. We can only hope that Hamill's performance against a bewildered Michael Bisping at UFC 75 and a lungless Tim Boetsch at Fight Night 13 hasn't left him with the idea that he can stand and bang with a guy like Franklin, one of the finest technical strikers in the UFC today. Hamill may be tough enough to survive the bout, but don't be surprised to see him resemble a post-BBQ Harvey Dent by the end of the third.
Keys to victory:
Franklin: This is the Octagon's equivalent of Whack-A-Mole. Let him have round one out of mercy and be sure to credit his toughness after the win. And do something anti-Franklin like calling out another fighter. Do I hear a Machida rematch?
Hamill: You'll get a few takedowns, so if you want the "W" then you better do it Rampage-style. That doesn't mean go all Jim Jones in the Octagon, rather try to dump him on his head and hope for a knockout.
Prediction: Franklin by TKO
Chuck "The Iceman" Liddell (21-5) vs. "Sugar" Rashad Evans (11-0-1)
Rashad Evans may call himself "Sugar", but to me he's just artificial sweetener. Yes he has skill, but what he has even more of is the ability to squeak out win after win. That's a sign of his opposition, which to this point has been average at best (Tito and Bisping fans - skip ahead to the comments section and start screaming). Three split-decisions, one draw and a poached Salmon. Evans does have good striking and good wrestling, but unfortunately that's not enough against a guy who has great striking and a great takedown defense. This is Chuck Liddell we're talking about. Like Rich Franklin, he was one import away from history. Yes, there was the misstep against Jardine, but is that enough to call him old and washed up? Not for me. Chuck's hands are the stuff of nightmares and the icy one knows a thing or two about wrestling as well. This is another match that has cardio implications as I've never seen Chuck suck wind, but I've definitely see Rashad go Dawn of the Dead in later rounds. Evans is a gamer and I know he has heart, but he's going to join a very elite club on Saturday night. And I don't mean Studio 54. Plan on a visit from a dream-toting James Irvin midway through the second round.
Keys to victory:
Liddell: Superior striking and a stingy defense. It's what has made you a hall-of-famer and there's no reason to do anything different this time around.
Evans: How long can you go without blinking? Even after the Jardine fight I don't think Chuck is expecting the leg kick - which is why you must rely on it. Get in and get out as fast as possible.
Prediction: Liddell by KO
That’s a wrap, folks. For the complete UFC 88 "Breakthrough" fight card click here. Remember to come check us out this weekend for the latest results, recaps and thoughts on Saturday’s fights.
What do you think? Now it’s your turn … let’s have it in the comments section and share your thoughts and picks for UFC 88.