
UFC 86: “Jackson vs. Griffin” is set for tomorrow (Saturday) night, July 5 from the Mandalay Bay Events Center in Las Vegas, Nevada. The pay-per-view (PPV) event airs LIVE at 10 p.m. ET.
Remember: MMAmania.com will provide LIVE updates and blow-by-blow, round-by-round commentary of the main card action throughout the telecast. As usual, it promises to be a great discussion during a solid line up of fights.
To get us pumped for the festivities MMAmania.com Editor and Senior Writer Jesse Holland and site contributor Chris Cosme went toe-to-toe below to try and predict the fighters who will leave the Octagon with their hands raised tomorrow during the featured fights of the day.
It’s important to note for the predictions that while someone may be lauding a certain fighter, he isn’t necessarily the guy who he thinks is going to win. Basically, we never want this to come out sounding repetitive. At the end of each analysis, therefore, you will see the individual picks.
Let’s get to it:
Tyson Griffin (11-1) vs. Marcus Aurelio (16-5)
Chris Cosme: This is a big fight for Griffin due to the fact that a win here could put him as the next man in line for a lightweight title shot behind Roger Huerta or Kenny Florian. But Griffin has to finish this fight impressively. Period. All of his wins inside the Octagon have been by decision and granted those fights have been exciting, but you have to finish fights too. Unfortunately, it’s not going to be easy finishing Marcus Aurelio. ‘Maximus’ is clearly going to be a daunting task for Griffin because he’s so well versed with his jiu-jitsu. Aurelio’s striking has come leaps and bounds since fighting in PRIDE, and he could look to beat Griffin on the feet before the fight goes to the ground. This is a fight that could come down to who can impose their will on their opponent and in turn determine who wins this fight.
Jesse Holland: Tyson Griffin has a lot of hurdles in front of him in the lightweight division. Despite his talent, he’s still playing second fiddle to some of the more recognizable names like Kenny Florian, Joe Stevenson and Roger Huerta. Like Jon Fitch at welterweight, Griffin must continue to win until the UFC is forced to put him in a title match. A loss could send him into the realm of Karo Parisyan, where every fight brings you closer to…well, nothing. If he’s going to defeat Aurelio, he’s going to have to out-work him. “Maximus” only loses via decision and finished ten of his fights by submission, including a shocking arm-triangle on Takanori Gomi back in PRIDE Bushido 10. He’s been a bit inconsistent since then and I thought he looked a little dogged in his fight against Luke Caudillo at UFC 78. Is age catching up with him? Perhaps, but a submission over the wily Griffin will once again prove age ain’t nothin’ but a number.
Final Predictions:
Cosme: Griffin via split decision
Holland: Griffin via unanimous decision
Gleison Tibau (15-5) vs. Joe Stevenson (28-8)
Chris Cosme: It’s going to be very interesting to see what Joe Stevenson’s mindset is heading into this fight. It’s no secret that he was thoroughly dominated by BJ Penn at UFC 80 last January and this is a tough first fight back since that loss. Tibau is a big lightweight who has competed in the UFC’s welterweight division at one point in his MMA career. Tibau is going to have the height and reach advantage and it would serve him good to keep Stevenson at bay to avoid any takedowns. Stevenson will have to close the distance against Tibau, just as Tyson Griffin did in Tibau’s 155 lb debut back in February. Tyson bullied Tibau in the cage long enough to get a takedown and score some points. Stevenson will have to take some risks in order to utilize the same gameplan Griffin did in defeating Tibau. If he can take Tibau down and keep him there, it’s going to be an easy night for Stevenson. But nothing comes easy in this sport.
Jesse Holland: Joe Stevenson got his ass kicked by BJ Penn. So what? That’s like getting out-putted by Tiger Woods or Aced in a serve against Roger Federer. Aside from Penn and perhaps Sherk, Joe Stevenson owns this division. It’s amazing to think that the youthful Stevenson has 36 fights or that he’s 18-3 since 2001, but that’s a testament to the kind of fighter “Daddy” is. Since moving to lightweight he’s never looked better and his strength and conditioning will give Tibau plenty of problems. I haven’t seen anything in Tibau’s past that indicates he’s able to topple someone of Stevenson’s caliber. He was stopped by Nick Diaz, outpointed by Tyson Griffin – and how in the world do you allow yourself to lose to a guy named Anaconda Anaconda? Joe Daddy is going to put him on the mat and grind him into little pieces.
Final Predictions:
Cosme: Stevenson via unanimous decision
Holland: Stevenson via TKO
Josh Koscheck (10-2) vs. Chris Lytle (25-15-5)
Chris Cosme: This is my ‘Fight of the Night’ pick right here in what could be a slugfest. A win for Koscheck puts him right back in the title picture of the welterweight division. A win for Lytle could be monumental to his career and could possibly leapfrog Koscheck in the welterweight rankings. Like I’ve stated in the FNT, Lytle is 0-2 against top tier competition in the division. A win here could snap that streak and Josh Koscheck is the perfect opponent to do so. Koscheck may have a hell of a chin, but Lytle has the power to knock dudes out cold. This fight all hinges on which Josh Koscheck shows up to this fight. Koscheck wins this fight 9 out 10 times if he relies on his superior wrestling, but it’s a crapshoot if he decides to stand and trade with Lytle. We’ll all have to wait and see on tomorrow night.
Jesse Holland: Fight of the night? Slugfest? This is Koscheck we’re talking about, right? Look, Chris Lytle is a skilled boxer and a helluva nice guy. Unfortunately that’s about it. To be fair the guy knows how to choke people out – he’s done it twelve times in his career – but that won’t matter against a wrestler like Koscheck. A lot of people are questioning whether or not Kos will be doing any striking and personally, I don’t see it. There is too much on the line to be experimenting with a striker of Lytle’s ability. Koscheck knows he’s in a very tough division so I expect him to do what he does best: Take Lytle down and punish him on the mat. Lytle is nearly impossible to finish– he hasn’t been submitted in 45 fights and his only two losses via TKO were due to cuts. He’s a tough dude but I see this playing out much like his fight against Matt Hughes back at UFC 68. He’s going to be on the defensive the entire bout, most of which will be spent on his back.
Final Predictions:
Cosme: Koscheck via TKO
Holland: Koscheck by unanimous decision
Ricardo Almeida (9-2) vs. Patrick Cote (12-4)
Chris Cosme: The battle between Patrick Cote and Ricardo Almeida clearly can go either way. If Patrick Cote can defend the takedowns, he has a shot of winning this fight. If Ricardo takes Cote down, it’s just simply textbook from there. Who is going to utilize their gameplan in winning this fight? I’m not sold on Patrick Cote’s takedown defense even if Almeida’s isn’t the best in the world. All of his wins inside the Octagon have come against strikers and two of his three losses have come against submission fighters. Almeida’s chin is sure to be tested by Cote and that’s where Cote wins this fight. If Almeida can weather the storm and take Cote down, he’s winning this fight. So Patrick, be sure to stay standing and you’ll be just fine!
Jesse Holland: Well here it is, the striker versus the grappler. At first glance I want to lean towards Almeida because of Cote’s submission losses to Joe Doerksen and Travis Lutter, but that was long before the new and improved Patrick Cote arrived, who seems able to punch through steel walls as of late. This one isn’t brain surgery folks. Cote has to stay off the ground. Fortunately this isn’t amateur wrestling so he has at the very least the start of each round to make some noise. To his credit, not only has his last three wins been via TKO, they’ve also all ended in the first round. He needs to try for the same result here. We know Almeida will be looking for the shoot just as Cote will be looking for the bomb. Whoever gets it first is going home the winner.
Final Predictions:
Cosme: Cote via TKO
Holland: Almeida via submission
Quinton ‘Rampage’ Jackson (28-6) vs. Forrest Griffin (15-4)
Chris Cosme: I’ve been torn in picking this winner of this fight since the fight was announced earlier this year. Who has the bigger heart? Who’s going to have the better cardio? There is just so many unknowns in this fight which could make this fight one of the better ones of the year. The key for Griffin will be to utilize his height and reach advantage to make Rampage maybe over commit for a takedown or letting his hands go too much. Much has been made of Griffin possibly using the Muay Thai clinch because it has become an effective tool to defeat Jackson. The problem with that is that it was Wanderlei Silva and Shogun Rua delivering those knees to defeat Jackson, not Griffin. Griffin’s height if anything makes it easier for Jackson to take him down in the clinch. Silva and Rua were about the same height as Jackson, thus making it easier for them to keep Jackson close to deliver those devastating knees. That alone eliminates the possibility of Griffin defeating Jackson by knees in the clinch. The fact of the matter is that anything Griffin does in this fight, Rampage will do better. It’s going to be close after three rounds, but it will be in the championship rounds that Rampage will dominate en route to an easy victory.
Jesse Holland: So according to Cosme you have to be Billy Barty to land knees in the clinch. When I spoke to Rampage last December I asked him if Forrest had any chance in hell against Shogun. He told me that he had a very good chance because Forrest is a big guy who knows what tough is. That tells me he’s never underestimated Griffin and may have even more concerns about their match-up after Griffin’s destruction of Shogun Rua, a man who annihilated Jackson. A lot of people can’t shake the Jardine KO from their memories but I think Griffin is the better fighter because of it. He’s more careful, more tactical and of course his cardio speaks for itself. Unfortunately for him, as good as he is in all of those categories, Rampage is just a little bit better. He was on shaky legs in PRIDE but since coming to the UFC he seems to have refined his ability and matured greatly as a fighter. I don’t think he will be able to stop Forrest, but he will definitely out-strike him. Look for an exciting five round fight that may be a lot closer than some people think.
Final Predictions:
Cosme: Jackson via TKO
Holland: Jackson via unanimous decision
That’s a wrap, folks. For the complete UFC 86: “Jackson vs. Griffin” fight card click here. Remember to come check us out this weekend for the latest results, recaps and thoughts on Saturday’s fights.
What do you think? Now it’s your turn … let us have it in the comments section and share your thoughts and picks for UFC 86.
40 Comments »

















T. Griffin - UD
Stevenson - Sub 2nd rd
Kos - TKO 1st rd
Coté - TKO 1st rd
Rampage - TKO 3rd rd
Rampage
Almeida
Stevenson
Aurelio
Lytle
Rampage
cote
stevenson
lytle
guillard
griffin
miller
hill
as much as I think gonzaga is over rated, I like him. This is the toughest one to call. I’m going to say Gonzaga, but I don’t think it will be as easy as some of you think.
As far as Rampage, I talked to a couple guys last night who think Forrest will win. I will be taking those guys paycheck home with me next week…!!
Have a good fourth of July, since I’m going to vegas next week, and my pay rate for the day is 60 something an hour, I’m working it!!!
Anyone else notice how good that picture is for this fight? lol People saying Forrest is the whole Rocky Story, and Rampage is playing Mr. T’s part in the A-Team. I don’t know, freshly baked and I thought of that. lol
Forrest - sub
Cote - tko
Stevenson - tko
Griffin - sd
Lytle by - KO
Jackson via TKO
Cote via TKO
Koscheck via unanimous decision
Stevenson via TKO
Griffin via split decision
Melvin Guillard via KO
Jorge Gurgel via split decision
Corey Hill via TKO
Justin McCully via TKO
Forrest Sub
Cote KO
Koscheck sub
Stevenson Sub
Griffin TKO
Guillard TKO
Gurgel TKO
Come on Cote! I know Almeida has some insane jitz but I really hope he punches a hole through him. I think that Almeida would have a better shot at Silva than Cote would but I’m Canadian and I gots to support my boy.
Rampage TKO Rnd 4
Cote TKO Rnd 2
Kos UD
Stevenson Sub Rnd 3
Aurelio UD
Take those to the bank.
According to some of my biased predictions, it’s Rampage via TKO, Almeida via submission, Lytle via whatever method[I don’t care, as long as Koscheck gets it], Stevenson and Tyson Griffin via unanimous[or maybe even split]decision…There you have it folks, from the Nostradamus of sports. Yours truly…
Get off my D*ck !!!!
I am the one and only John-stardamus on this site!
T. Griffin-UD
Stevenson-Sub
Lytle-KO
Cote-KO
F. Griffin-Sub
Rampage
Big Dog
Daddy
KOS
Griffin
Napao
Gugel
Guillard
Hill
i hope rampage can pull this one off.
cote via tko for the title shot baby!@
Cosme, you need to get your facts straight. Griffin has one finish, NOT ZERO. He finished David Lee at UFC 63 via submission. And Jesse, Aurelio has been flawless since his loss to Clay Guida. He DOMINATED Luke Caudillo and put Ryan Roberts away at the snap of a finger. How could you say he looked dogged against Caudillo? He smothered him to the tune of an impressive GNP TKO victory. He’s gonna finish Griffin and continue his torrid run since the Guida loss.
Oh, and Lytle is more than just a nice guy and good boxer. He comes to FIGHT. His last 3 fights inside the octagon have garnered some type of bonus (submission of the night at UFC 73, fight of the night at UFC 78, and knockout of the night at UFC 81). This fight with Koscheck will stretch the streak to four. he could easily get fight of the night, or, he could pull off the upset and knock Kos out cold.
This is an excellent card and will be a great night of fights.
….Are you me Clint? Haha i like your thinking…this is going to be a great night of fights, enjoy.
reading the predictions by chris cosme I was shaking my head the entire time..
I agree with all the predictions, and i believe almedia will sub cote.
I have a wedding to go to (the best man) which blows. I’m thinking of buying it and PVRing it for the after party. My other idea is to watch it the next morning on a web page. Does anyone have any good sites they know of?
mmalinker
mmatko
mmahunter
You can download the next day usually. Torrentman usually has it. If I cant see one live I’ll get it the next day
My picks:
Rampage
Almeida
Koscheck
Tyson Griffin
Stevenson
Melvin
I don’t care about Forrest beating Shogun…he wasn’t the same fighter we saw in Pride. Also, he seemed too hesitant during the fight with Forrest or just couldn’t handle the bright lights and cage factor. I love Forrest but I just think he needs a few more fights before he can become champion. I also can’t get that loss to Jardine out of my mind.
Almeida over Cote because I’m not on the Cote bandwagon just yet…he beat Kendall Grove who sucks major portions of booty.
Tyson vs. Aurelio is the hardest to call for me because that fight can go either way. i just think Tyson has faced so many bad ass fighters that his experience will make him a smarter fighter against Aurelio and help him evade a submission.
It’s make or break time for Melvin and I think one of his wild punches will catch Siver and that will be it. If not then I see him going to WEC.
All the fights are very interesting to say the least. I love this card and I can’t wait til tomorrow!!
rampage
almeida
stevenson
lytle
Tyson griffen
Gonzaga
Look for the Forrest as the upset of the night….
I find it funny that one prediction has Chris Lytle taking his first ever TKO loss to none other than JOSH KOSCHECK.
funny, I thought He just achieved a tko victory in his fight with kyle bradley.
all right, I get it.. just forgive me this time..
I think the winners will be:
Rampage
Almeida
Griffin
Guillard
Lytle
Gonzaga
Stevenson
Even though i would love Rampage to win i get the feeling he will get too cocky and get beat like GSP did but let’s hope not, i mean his coach saying he’ll retire? that’s too much pressure.
Also i have to also say that Forrest Griffin did not beat the real Shogun he beat an injured UFC newcomer who got the jitters of their first fight in the cage.
I don’t know if Patrick Cote can manage to knock out Almeida before getting tooken down and taped out.
Tyson Griffin will try and neutralize Aurellio.
Melvin Guillard is on a downfall so god knows what will be his out come.
Gonzaga might win but i still believe he gt lucky with crocop and thats all he has to offer.
Lytle is a real fighter and his passion is what i like to watch and hopefully Koscheck wont lay on him for 15 minutes.
I don’t really watch stevenson but his opponent is unknown in my books.
I’m going to “go against the grain” and pick Griffin over Jackson. Just a hunch.
griffin via TKO in late rounds or unanimous desicion, i cant see jackson knocking out forrest, he might rock forrest but, he’ll not finish griffin,
Aurelio sub
Lytle DU
Stevenson TKO
Cote BRUTAL KO
Griffin SUB
griffins x 2
cote
lytle
stevenson
i for one will admit that shogun didnt seem quite himself against griffin. i also believe that had something to do with griffin. IMO griffin looked exceptionally sharp in all aspects of mma during that fight. i take griffin for the win, which in my mind isn’t that big of an upset.
Rampage - TKO
Tyson Griffin
Stevenson
Koscheck - win guranteed
Cote
Gonzaga
That’s what’s up…..
Rampage TKO
Big Dog Sub
T Griffin UD
Kos UD
Melvin TKO
Miller Sub
Gonzaga TKO
Hill TKO
All the talk about Forrest beating Shogun isn’t going to matter, Rampage will dominate him. Wont be as impressive as Wandy against Jardine but not far off.
i love how forrest wins one decent fight and now hes gonna beat rampage. he chokes out a completely winded injured shogun and hes a ground wizard. What about tito handing him his ass in the first round?? and then hanging just fine on the feet the next 2. ( and tito cant stand up ) so what makes anyone think forrest is any more likely to submit rampage?? and you dont see rampage knockin him out?? but jardine did in what 3 minutes? dont see the logic there so lets recap forest beat bill who….. oh ya mahood and elvis im hear to lose sinosic then lost to an over the hill tito then again couldnt knock out stephan bonnar then goes on to be knocked out by jardine then comes out with a huge win over the sick dog LOL and chokes out a one legged shogun Oh your right its defineatly gonna be forrest winning this one.
LOL…yup sure will be Forrest winning. I love it how people can right off a fighter and giive him no chance!! People need to remember this is mma and a Forrest had Randy in his corner. Mr. Gameplan himself.
LOL Forrest by sub cuz he looked awesome off his back with tito right. I love it the guy finished Bill Mahood and a already asleep hes so tired shogun and now hes a ground wizard. I know thats how the ufc is hyping it but that doesnt mean you need to buy it. If they hyped the fight as forrest is gonna get killed but they were on a tv show together so we hope for good ratings anyways it just wouldnt be the same.
Rampage
Tyson Griffin
Kos (crazy if you think otherwise)
Cote (a tough one….)
Stevenson
Melvin
Hill
Gonzaga
It is what it is…. not a tough one to predict….
Rampage TKO first round like he did to Chucky
Heh Forest….. SEE YOU IN THE FALL
Rampage: no reason to pick forrest
Aurellio: jits + experience, underdog pick of the night
Koscheck: don’t overthink - he’s the better fighter
Almeida: this is an easy call, but the hype would have you think otherwise. cote isn’t a reformed and improved fighter - this is the same guy who has losses to Lutter, Leben, and Doerkson. his 4-win streak are over weak competition.
Tibau: physically larger than stevenson, so he won’t be bullied around the mat. also, tibau’s good BJJ should protect him from stevenson’s trademark guillotines
Hill: i am more confident in this pick than any other
Gonzaga: