Desert Dog back again with picks and smart bets for UFC 82: “Pride of a Champion” this Saturday, March 1, at the Nationwide Arena in Columbus, Ohio.
It’s a fantastic line up of fights with several juicy betting options from which to choose. Therefore, focus on the fights that you’re most interested in and play it smart.
Remember that MMAmania.com is running a BetUS.com-sponsored “Motivator” contest leading up to the pay-per-view (PPV) event. And to be eligible to win the top prizes BetUS.com accounts need to be created BEFORE the contest expires on Friday.
That means NOW is as good a time as ever to create a BetUS.com account right here so you don’t miss out on some free betting money, which you can turn into even more free money.
Let’s see if we can help you get a bettors edge this weekend right now — there is tons of value in several of the match ups.
Here are the “Smart Bets” for UFC 82:
(Note: + = Underdog; - = Favorite)
Main Card:
Anderson Silva -145 (Bet $100 to win $68.97)
Cheick Kongo -155 (Bet $100 to win $64.57)
Jon Fitch -600 (No action)
Evan Tanner +160 (Bet $100 to win $160)
Chris Leben -130 (Bet $100 to win $76.92)
Under Card:
Andrei Arlovski -400 (Bet $100 to win $25)
Dustin Hazelett +350 (Bet $100 to win $350)
David Bielkheden +350 (Bet $100 to win $350)
Luke Cummo -150 (No action)
Jorge Gurgel -250 (No action)
NOTE: MMAmania.com recommends BetUS.com to place wagers (FREE $75 play with a deposit of $50 or more if you join today — you actually make money!). However, Bodog.com is also a good place to bet and compare odds.
I’ve laid out seven fights out of the 10 booked that have solid betting value, meaning there are plenty of options on this card. It’s important for everyone to understand that the picks and bets listed here don’t represent my actual bets or amounts wagered.
Accordingly, how much you wager on an event is up to you and should be determined with what you’re willing to risk.
For what it’s worth, when I place bets I typically look for one or two anchor bets – those with the highest probability for success. The wagers on the anchor bets are used to cover my more speculative bets.
Here’s a simple example using $10 (yes, you can wager as little as $10 to make things more interesting) as you’re base wager and odds from BetUS:
- Bet $80 on Arlovski (-400) to win $20
- Bet $5 on Hazellett (+350) to win $17.50
- Bet $5 on Bielkheden (+350) to win $17.50
I prefer that my anchor bet (Arlovski) has odds a bit closer to -200 but of course the easiest fights to pick will have the heaviest odds. Finding an anchor bet with which you’re comfortable is the key to a successful night.
This style of betting improves your chance of building your bank roll over time and gives you a chance to pay for your next trip to Vegas to see the action live.
Wouldn’t that be nice.
Let’s now onto a more detailed breakdown of the fights for those bettors who require a little more reassurance.
Main card bouts:
Anderson Silva (-145) vs. Dan Henderson (+115)
We’ve all been rumbling about this one for months and the time is finally near. This is a huge test for both fighters and no matter how much I grind over details of their styles, it all comes out the same:
These two are set to beat the snot out of each other.
Anderson Silva is one of the most impressive fighters I’ve ever watched. He leaves no question of who won at the end of a fight. “The Spider” never looks to dance around and out score someone — he is out to destroy.
In fact, most of his wins are almost always jaw dropping highlights.
Silva has Liddell’s ability to end any fight with a punch with the added bonus of some sick jiu-jitsu just in case opponents want to get cute on the ground. He has only shown one slight chink in his armor and it’s been getting taken down and controlled on the ground.
It was seen briefly against Travis Lutter (before Lutter tapped out) and somewhat against Yushin Okami (before Okami was knocked out by an illegal up kick). The other thing we haven’t seen from Silva is his conditioning for a five round fight.
He hasn’t gone past the second round since 2004!
If there’s anyone who can take advantage of Anderson’s slight flaws, however, it’s the Greco Roman wrestling wrecking machine, Dan Henderson. Not only does Dan possess the iron chin needed, but he also has the ability to out work Silva in the clinch and put him in his world on the ground.
Henderson’s amazing grappling and power will give him a distinct advantage on the ground. He has been submitted by the Nogueira brothers (who Silva got his black belt from), but in all likelihood Dan will be able to avoid the submission attempts and do some serious damage on the ground.
Remember also that Henderson has dangerous power on his feet with the crushing right hand. But he needs a fighter who’s willing to trade shots for him to be effective. Silva is far too skilled of a counter striker and versed in using distance to his advantage for Hendo to win with straight up brawling.
I see the first two rounds as survival rounds for Henderson who will be pushing hard but likely feeling the sting of Silva’s Muay Thai. It is very possible, however, if the fight makes it past round two that Silva will begin to lose confidence and steam.
Henderson’s style lends itself to grinding opponents down and his power could finish anyone on the ground. But, something tells me if it goes to a final round it will be all out mayhem. These two have the inner fire every fighter should aspire toward and if they both see it’s down to a single round they aren’t leaving it to the judges.
I can only go with my gut on this one. Silva hasn’t shown me any reason to bet against him so I won’t start now. I think every iron chin can succumb to the likes of Silva and at some point he will be able to put together a combination that even Henderson can’t withstand.
Prediction: Silva via technical knockout Click to BET NOW!
Cheick Kongo (-150) vs. Heath Herring (+125)
Cheick Kongo has been training with Juanito Ibarra, which is great for working his overall game, attitude and standup. But I sure hope he has some serious Brazilian jiu-jitsu and wrestling training going on up in the Big Bear mountains.
Kongo’s five UFC fights have shown both his strength on his feet, as well as his glaring weakness on the ground. In his last fight with Mirko Cro Cop he looked more comfortable on the ground, but that could just be him feeling Mirko was not a threat there.
Put simply, Kongo only has two ways to beat Herring: outwork or knockout.
Herring is definitely a veteran with 40 fights behind him in nearly 11 years on the mixed martial arts circuit. Recently, he’s struggled in the Octagon, facing some very tough match ups. Of course, we all remember his last fight in which he dropped his biggest potential win yet to Minotauro Nogueira.
Herring is able to withstand a great deal of punishment and his power makes him dangerous at any time. His biggest flaws have been fading after the half way point of a fight and not sticking to his game plans.
He has stated he has new management and feels his training and mindset are refocused and he will be the aggressive bastard of old. A solid game plan and an iron will are what Heath is going to need to pull out a win in this match up.
Cheick’s stand up is plain and simple superior to Herring’s and both fighters know this; therefore, Herring should focus on the weakness we’ve all seen in Kongo. The game plan for Herring should be to engage on the feet, drive to the clinch, take down and control. Heath’s submissions aren’t great but if he keeps Kongo’s legs in mind, there will be opportunities for a submission.
The question is can Heath get past just engaging in a standup battle? If Herring chooses to stay on his feet the odds of him coming out on the winning side are very poor. I’m betting that his training has focused on taking advantage of Congo’s apparent weakness on the ground. Whether or not it is still a weakness and if Herring will test it will not be seen until next Saturday.
The betting line for this fight is fairly tight and only slightly off of the “real” odds. There is slight value in a bet on Herring at +140 or better. Myself I can’t quite give Heath the call. I think he’s got a real shot, but in the end I’m afraid he’ll revert to his standup and get out worked.
Prediction: Congo via decision. Click to BET NOW!
Jon Fitch (-600) vs. Chris Wilson (+400)
Jon Fitch is one of the top five welterweights in the world, is on a 14-fight win streak, and apparently is set to fight his little brother.
Chris Wilson was selected as the replacement for an injured Akhiro Gono. No disrespect to Wilson because he is well trained at Team Quest and is building a solid record; but making your UFC debut against someone with Fitch’s record and current standing doesn’t make any sense.
I don’t bet against Fitch so the odds leave me no reason to discuss this fight in extreme detail.
Wilson’s height and reach will make for some interesting challenges for Fitch. Look for Fitch to control this fight on the ground and finish it there before the end of round two. Hopefully, Wilson takes full advantage of this opportunity and gets a chance to come back to the Octagon – he’s good, but this is too tough a first test.
Prediction: Fitch via submission Click to BET NOW!
Yushin Okami (-180) vs. Evan Tanner (+160)
A comeback in the fight game is never easy, but stepping in against a fighter like Yushin Okami should get the old juices flowing for one of my favorite nutballs, Evan Tanner.
And I mean that in the best possible way — Tanner is not the prototypical MMA fighter obsessed with being the best or tracking where he fit’s into the mix.
Tanner has been training at Hard Knocks Muay Thai and the Xyience Training Center in Las Vegas, as well as at Absolute MMA in Salt Lake City with Josh Burkman. Physically, he looks to be coming back well. Mentally, he appears to have the drinking demons behind him and is back to focusing on his very simple lifestyle and his joy of the battle.
Okami will be an extreme test of Evan’s current conditioning. Both fighters are known for their strength and have proven very difficult to put away. Okami’s strengths are actually very similar to Tanner’s with Okami being slightly more dangerous on the ground and Evan having the edge on the feet.
I’m not going to over analyze this fight because it is a bit unpredictable given Tanner’s long layoff. In short, both guys have the tools to win in several possible ways and in the end it will come down to who can impose their will. My sense is Okami’s looking past this fight and Tanner has nothing else on his mind.
The current odds have Okami as a fairly significant favorite over Tanner. The heavy chalk on Okami is due to a mix of current name recognition (yes people forget in just two years), and the fact that this is Tanner’s first fight back from oblivion.
In reality with both of these guys in shape it’s an even match up. For me this is a dog bet I can’t leave alone and besides I love to support guys like Tanner.
Prediction: Tanner via technical knockout. Click to BET NOW!
Chris Leben (-130) vs. Alessio Sakara (+100)
This is a very tight fight to call both men like to stand both have the power to finish a fight in a split second.
Sakara has been through some tough times in the 205-pound division (3-3) throughout his UFC career. His last fight with James Lee was an important reminder of his punching prowess, but my question has always been where is the rest of his game. Other than going three rounds with Elvis Sinosic the rest of his UFC fights have ended early in the first round.
This makes it tough to determine how he’ll respond to anything other than a striking exchange.
Leben looks to be really enjoying his training in Hawaii. His last fight with Terry Martin was a testament to his chin and the old Leben “button.” I also saw that his game is much more well rounded relative to Sakara’s. His kicks, movement and ground work all look to be solid. Leben has been hinting that he wants to take this fight to the ground and work a game plan that’s a little different than his full on brawl style. I think it’s a smart move and he should be able to find a way to prove he’s in a class above the Italian.
Prediction: Leben via submission Click to BET NOW!
Preliminary bouts:
Andrei Arlovski (-400) vs. Jake O’Brien (+300)
First off, Arlovski should be on the main card fighting Kongo and O’Brien the “Irish Wet Blanket” should be in a homeless shelter keeping someone warm. Unfortunately, this is Arlovski’s last fight on his current UFC contract. Hopefully, a win here will give him some serious bargaining power and UFC President Dana White will remember what a huge draw he can be.
The last time I saw O’Brien fight Herring I was actually booing at my television along with the crowd. It was the most painful three rounds of wet blanket I have ever seen and I hoped the UFC would just drop him off at the corner. Now after watching Jake’s latest prefight interviews it appears he’s planning on more of the same.
As long as Arlovski isn’t tentative, he has O’Brien soundly outclassed in every aspect of this match up. Plain and simple I see ending this fight in the first five minutes with Andrei’s hand raised.
The odds are putting Arlovski at about a 78 percent probability of winning, which is actually a bit of an underestimate in my books. And although I don’t like betting with odds this large, I like the value.
Prediction: Arlovski via technical knockout. Click to BET NOW!
Josh Koscheck (-500) vs. Dustin Hazelett (+350)
Dustin Hazelett is a smart submission specialist who has had his best success against aggressive wrestlers and strikers. His skill set on the ground plays into Koscheck’s ground game. Hazelett is very proficient at avoiding damage on his back and then slapping on the submission. On his feet he’s as good as Koshcheck and his slight reach advantage should help him out, too.
Even without the odds, I would actually lean toward Hazelett as my straight pick in this fight. Koscheck is a great athlete and he can use his strength to get out of many bad situations, but in this fight I don’t think it will save him. I see Hazelett’s superior technique as the deciding factor.
Prediction: Hazelett via submission. Click to BET NOW!
Diego Sanchez (-550) vs. David Bielkheden (+350)
David Bielkheden trains with Brazilian Top Team and that alone tells you he comes ready for a war. “The Scandinavian Lion” holds a black belt in jiu-jitsu, has good takedowns and some very strong ground and pound. Watching David’s highlight reels you can see how his aggressive style, strong standup and strength on the ground could hand Diego his third consecutive loss.
Diego’s in a corner right now and of course he’s going to come out with a vengeance. His loss to Koscheck may have been because of his physical condition, but in his loss to Jon Fitch he was simply beaten by a better fighter for three rounds.
Now out of the Jackson camp, Diego trains at the University of Jiu Jitsu (UNIJJ) under Saulo Ribeiro. I really don’t know what his game plan will be for this fight. He’s actually out classed on the Jiu-Jitsu side and on the feet I’m not certain how the two stack up. I imagine Sanchez will work with his own strengths and see where the fight goes when it comes time to scramble.
Bielkheden’s chances are definitely good enough for a bet, but his losses have been to fighters with slick technical styles. And when Diego is on he can definitely stay a step ahead of his opponent. We’ll just have to see if Diego is on or not.
Prediction: Bielkheden via technical knockout Click to BET NOW!
Luke Cummo (-150) vs. Luigi Fioravanti (+120)
This is an interesting match up between the unassuming Cummo and the up-and-down Fioravanti.
Luigi has had some struggles in the UFC getting called up in 2006 to face Leben — a fight that he dropped but his tenacity landed him a contract down the road. After tearing up former UFC middleweight champ, Dave Menne, people took notice. He was then handed Jon Fitch, who has become the common denominator in many fighters’ loss columns.
He dropped his last UFC fight to Forrest Petz in a decision. Luigi continues to train with American Top Team and still favors his powerful striking. Although he hits hard he’s going to have to get inside Cummo’s slight reach advantage to be successful.
Cummo is drinking his pee and pounding his training partners. Joking aside, Cummo is a very skilled fighter and stepping in against B level fighters like “Smurfy Haynes” and “Crocata” showed he’s definitely a step above. Now he’s faced with someone who has a very accomplished standup game and I think it’s unlikely that Cummo will pull off another technical knockout.
However, I can see him outscoring Luigi on the feet with his speed and reach. If the fight hits the ground, Cummo could actually have his best chance of finishing his fight from his back. I think this will be a back and forth battle fought primarily on the feet and Cummo should be able to out work Luigi.
This one is very tight and although I like Cummo There’s other fights I want to put my money on.
Prediction: Cummo via decision Click to BET NOW!
Jorge Gurgel (-250) vs. John Halverson (+190)
John Halverson got to fight in the Octagon for all of 15 seconds in his debut fight against Roger Huerta in early 2007. Since that time he returned to the lower ranks to string together three submission victories against some really poor competition. It doesn’t mean he sucks, it just means he hasn’t been tested recently.
Unfortunately, his strengths on the submissions side will be easily trumped by the skills of Jorge Gurgel.
Gurgel is coming off of a sound pummeling and is looking to make his own impression this time. Prior to his UFC career, Gurgel submitted everyone he met with one exception. Since fighting in the UFC his fights have all gone to decision four times and lost two of those. His weakness has been dropping his game plan and getting into standing exchanges.
Gurgel has a great opportunity in this fight to finish someone off in impressive fashion and keep his place in the UFC. And of he can make this “his fight” it should be a short night for Halverson.
Prediction: Gurgel via submission Click to BET NOW!
That about does it for this installment of betting tips and advice. Remember to bet smart.
Betting is not for everyone. But if you want to take a stab at it head over to BetUs.com (Sign up today and get a FREE $75 play) or to compare competitive MMA lines visit Bodog.com.
Enjoy the fights and good luck. Feel free to leave predictions and other thoughts in the comments section below.
46 Comments »
i bet….1 million dollars! deal or no deal!..oh yeah #1
Hey Mania - help me out…….. im off the holland tomorrow and i just went on the m1mixfight web page and it comes up with ‘Fedor Emelianenko to hold seminar in the Netherlands’ this saturday! can you find out how i can get in there - where ever it is ? this is one opportunity i dont wanna miss out on. Nice 1
I think Hendos wrestling and ground and pound will win the day. Hendo TKO in the 3rd.
how does putting $10 down as “anchor bets” to win 35 dollars cover the 80 u might lose??
Oh well, i took your advice and laid it all on the line. my wife and kids began to cry when i told them, but i told them to trust the dog.
and can everyone please get off hazletts nuts
i would not bet on the silva hendo fight way to close to call
DD is predicting KO losses for two guys (Henderson and Sanchez) who have never been KOed. Interesting. I actually both of those guys to win. I also have to go with Okami over a rusty Tanner.
I think Hendo will win this fight in devastating fashion.
i can’t believe that leben is on ppv and aa isn’t… thast RETARDED…everyone knows the pitbull..and leben SUCKS i dont’ care what anyone says he is by far one of the worst fighters in the middle weight class, next to jason mcdonald and he talked smack about Alessio Sakara hope he gets his face drilled in
I’m betting my house on Bielkheden
the contemporary losses of diego and koscheck make for the craziest thing I’ve ever heard..
I would not take this betting advice.
Some of these picks are garbage.
Tanner over Okami? Hazelett over Kos? Bielkheden over Sanchez?
I don’t claim to be an expert but I just don’t see value in these bets. There is definitely no value in the arlovski bet. I think Sakara is gonna pick Leben apart. I see the Spider/Hendo and Herring/Kongo as coinflips so I would bet the underdog.
Time will tell.
IF U WANT TO MAKE SOME MONEY BET ON KONGO!!! Although “Big Nog” was a professional boxer before coverting to MMA, i still think Kongo will outstrike Herring 10 X worse than “Big Nog” outstriked Herring. Kongo will chop Herrings out of shape ass with his kicks and after the 3rd failed attempt to take Kongo down, Herring will remain on his feet and get outstriked until he gets TKO’d or it goes to a unanimous decision victory for Kongo.
[quote comment=”330918″]I’m betting my house on Bielkheden[/quote]
I got a room for rent, since you’ll be in the market.
My predictions right here
http://mma.fighttube.tv/2008/02/27/ufc-82-pride-of-a-champion-predicitions-results/
Hey MMAMANIA!! Are the winners of the contest going to be announced before these fight happen so that we can bet on them if we win the contest???
[quote comment=”330992″]Hey MMAMANIA!! Are the winners of the contest going to be announced before these fight happen so that we can bet on them if we win the contest???[/quote]
Yes sir, that’s the reason we are encouraging everyone to sign up at BetUs.com before it’s too late. If you don’t have an account, and you win, you’ll have to forfeit.
Good read. Although I cannot imagine Hendo getting TKOd because Rampage wasn’t able to. Also. I’d rather bet on the fighter who I think is going to win for sure than bet on the underdog for the high payout.
[quote comment=”330938″]I would not take this betting advice.
Some of these picks are garbage.
Tanner over Okami? Hazelett over Kos? Bielkheden over Sanchez?
I don’t claim to be an expert but I just don’t see value in these bets. There is definitely no value in the arlovski bet. I think Sakara is gonna pick Leben apart. I see the Spider/Hendo and Herring/Kongo as coinflips so I would bet the underdog.
Time will tell.[/quote]
i agree, i was laughing when the title said “free betting advice” i couldnt believe it!!! u mean i dont have to pay for these awesome opinions!!!
[quote comment=”330878″]how does putting $10 down as “anchor bets” to win 35 dollars cover the 80 u might lose??
Oh well, i took your advice and laid it all on the line. my wife and kids began to cry when i told them, but i told them to trust the dog.
and can everyone please get off hazletts nuts[/quote]
keystone, your backwards there. The anchor bet is the pick that is the favorite and most likely to win in your estimation.
[quote comment=”330944″]IF U WANT TO MAKE SOME MONEY BET ON KONGO!!! Although “Big Nog” was a professional boxer before coverting to MMA, i still think Kongo will outstrike Herring 10 X worse than “Big Nog” outstriked Herring. Kongo will chop Herrings out of shape ass with his kicks and after the 3rd failed attempt to take Kongo down, Herring will remain on his feet and get outstriked until he gets TKO’d or it goes to a unanimous decision victory for Kongo.[/quote]
I have been thinking about taking Kongo as my quote unquote “anchor bet”, bet the only thing that has me worried is the possibility of Herring laying on him for 2 of the 3 rounds. Kongo was on the up and up to start his UFC career, and then he met Carmelo Marero who took him down and owned him. I have not seen enough of Kongo’s takedown defense to consider him a ‘guaranteed win’. As far as guaranteed picks go on this card, I truely think that they only one is Jon Fitch, but at -600, you’d have to risk $300 just to win $50.
Personally, I don’t think that Alessio Sakara has anything on Chris Leben. Yup, I said it. At only -130, I see Leben as a great pick.
And I’m not going to even mention how much money I already put on both Hazelett and Bielkheden before all the money gets bet and the odds sway. I REALLY don’t see too many people betting on Kos as a plus 500 favorite, but then again, he got curly blonde hair and goes tanning…
Leben is 7-3 in the UFC.
He lost to Anderson Silva in Anderson’s first first ever UFC fight in a #1 contender fight and got KO’d by the relatively unknown (to the casual fan) Spider.
In 10 fights in the UFC, you are bound to have an off night, and that is what I consider to be his bout against Khalib Starnes, where neither of them looked spectacular.
The only loss that I truely hold against Leben is the loss the Jason MacDonald, where he got submitted.
Alessio Sakara is 3-3 in the UFC and will NOT be looking for a submission win. Terry Martin was a “feared striker” that moved down from LHW and Leben took care of him. Sakara has shown me nothing that he can beat the like of The Crippler. In his 3 UFC wins, he has beaten such stars as James Lee, Elvis Sinosic, and yes, Victor Valimaki.
Henderson via unamious decision
Herring via 2nd round submission
Fitch via 1st round submission
Leben via 3rd round knockout
Okami via unamios decision
O’brien via boring lay and pray unamious decision
Kos via 2nd round tko
Diego via split decision
Cummo via 2nd round submission
Gurgel via 1st round submission
[quote comment=”331043″][quote comment=”330878″]how does putting $10 down as “anchor bets” to win 35 dollars cover the 80 u might lose??
Oh well, i took your advice and laid it all on the line. my wife and kids began to cry when i told them, but i told them to trust the dog.
and can everyone please get off hazletts nuts[/quote]
keystone, your backwards there. The anchor bet is the pick that is the favorite and most likely to win in your estimation.
[quote comment=”330944″]IF U WANT TO MAKE SOME MONEY BET ON KONGO!!! Although “Big Nog” was a professional boxer before coverting to MMA, i still think Kongo will outstrike Herring 10 X worse than “Big Nog” outstriked Herring. Kongo will chop Herrings out of shape ass with his kicks and after the 3rd failed attempt to take Kongo down, Herring will remain on his feet and get outstriked until he gets TKO’d or it goes to a unanimous decision victory for Kongo.[/quote]
I have been thinking about taking Kongo as my quote unquote “anchor bet”, bet the only thing that has me worried is the possibility of Herring laying on him for 2 of the 3 rounds. Kongo was on the up and up to start his UFC career, and then he met Carmelo Marero who took him down and owned him. I have not seen enough of Kongo’s takedown defense to consider him a ‘guaranteed win’. As far as guaranteed picks go on this card, I truely think that they only one is Jon Fitch, but at -600, you’d have to risk $300 just to win $50.
Personally, I don’t think that Alessio Sakara has anything on Chris Leben. Yup, I said it. At only -130, I see Leben as a great pick.
And I’m not going to even mention how much money I already put on both Hazelett and Bielkheden before all the money gets bet and the odds sway. I REALLY don’t see too many people betting on Kos as a plus 500 favorite, but then again, he got curly blonde hair and goes tanning…[/quote]
ok got ya. guess i was looking at it the wrong way
[quote comment=”331043″][quote comment=”330878″]how does putting $10 down as “anchor bets” to win 35 dollars cover the 80 u might lose??
Oh well, i took your advice and laid it all on the line. my wife and kids began to cry when i told them, but i told them to trust the dog.
and can everyone please get off hazletts nuts[/quote]
keystone, your backwards there. The anchor bet is the pick that is the favorite and most likely to win in your estimation.
[quote comment=”330944″]IF U WANT TO MAKE SOME MONEY BET ON KONGO!!! Although “Big Nog” was a professional boxer before coverting to MMA, i still think Kongo will outstrike Herring 10 X worse than “Big Nog” outstriked Herring. Kongo will chop Herrings out of shape ass with his kicks and after the 3rd failed attempt to take Kongo down, Herring will remain on his feet and get outstriked until he gets TKO’d or it goes to a unanimous decision victory for Kongo.[/quote]
I have been thinking about taking Kongo as my quote unquote “anchor bet”, bet the only thing that has me worried is the possibility of Herring laying on him for 2 of the 3 rounds. Kongo was on the up and up to start his UFC career, and then he met Carmelo Marero who took him down and owned him. I have not seen enough of Kongo’s takedown defense to consider him a ‘guaranteed win’. As far as guaranteed picks go on this card, I truely think that they only one is Jon Fitch, but at -600, you’d have to risk $300 just to win $50.
Personally, I don’t think that Alessio Sakara has anything on Chris Leben. Yup, I said it. At only -130, I see Leben as a great pick.
And I’m not going to even mention how much money I already put on both Hazelett and Bielkheden before all the money gets bet and the odds sway. I REALLY don’t see too many people betting on Kos as a plus 500 favorite, but then again, he got curly blonde hair and goes tanning…[/quote]
ON THE KONGO FIGHT:
I was thinking the same thing about Herring laying on Kongo but i honestly dont think hes going to be able to do enough ground n pound on kongo in order for the referee to not stand them back up. Kongo will be cautious of the takedown at first so i see him working that long straight jab and eventually following up with a kick to the body as he becomes more comfortabel. Im putting a max bet on Kongo here while the odds are still good. Come fight time i bet u it goes up to at least -170.
Did you guys hear that EliteXC struck a deal with CBS? Not sure if they posted it here already.
Here’s the link: http://fiveouncesofpain.com/2008/02/27/elitexc-inks-network-deal-with-cbs/#comments
Like the argument in the article states, I have concerns over the legitamacy of EliteXC’s promotion. They put on a circus act like Tank v. Slice and now they are taking their promotion mainstream. This is going to give MMA a lot of exposure, but is EliteXC the exposure MMA wants? Say what you want about the UFC, but at least they put on legite shows, with some great talent (barring UFC 78). This could be a huge deal for MMA, and I don’t want EliteXC and their creep of a promoter screwing it up. I guess we’ll have to wait and see what happens. Undoubtedly, the UFC will be looking to get their product on a network station if this is true.
[quote comment=”330988″]My predictions right here
http://mma.fighttube.tv/2008/02/27/ufc-82-pride-of-a-champion-predicitions-results//quote
This goes for a lot of people on here: Dominate is a verb, as in I think fighter A will dominate fighter B in the clinch; Dominant is an adjective, as in GSP is a dominant middleweight.
[quote comment=”330962″][quote comment=”330918″]I’m betting my house on Bielkheden[/quote]
I got a room for rent, since you’ll be in the market.[/quote]
LoL, Looks like I’ll be homeless so I’m down, how much? LoL
[quote comment=”331052″]Henderson via unamious decision
Herring via 2nd round submission
Fitch via 1st round submission
Leben via 3rd round knockout
Okami via unamios decision
O’brien via boring lay and pray unamious decision
Kos via 2nd round tko
Diego via split decision
Cummo via 2nd round submission
Gurgel via 1st round submission[/quote]
Here’s what I think:
Hendo via Unanimous Decision
Kongo via 2nd rd KO
Sakara via 1st Rd KO
Arlovski via 2nd rd KO
Okami via Unanimous Decision
Hazelett via Decision
Diego via 2nd rd Submission
Cummo via 2nd rd KO
Gurgel via Split Decision
[quote comment=”331114″]Did you guys hear that EliteXC struck a deal with CBS? Not sure if they posted it here already.
Here’s the link: http://fiveouncesofpain.com/2008/02/27/elitexc-inks-network-deal-with-cbs/#comments
Like the argument in the article states, I have concerns over the legitamacy of EliteXC’s promotion. They put on a circus act like Tank v. Slice and now they are taking their promotion mainstream. This is going to give MMA a lot of exposure, but is EliteXC the exposure MMA wants? Say what you want about the UFC, but at least they put on legite shows, with some great talent (barring UFC 78). This could be a huge deal for MMA, and I don’t want EliteXC and their creep of a promoter screwing it up. I guess we’ll have to wait and see what happens. Undoubtedly, the UFC will be looking to get their product on a network station if this is true.[/quote]
That is truely a big deal. EliteXC is trying to cement themselves as the #1 contender to the UFC’s status as the Champion of MMA Organizations. Gary Shaw is just going to keep on picking up Dana’s leftovers, make the most of it, and be successful because eventually, free agent fighters will WANT to fight for them. UFC is going to lose Arlovski, its inevitable. There are a good number of UFC fighters approaching the last fight on thier current contracts and Dana better believe that Gary Shaw is going to be standing there with his wallett open ready to sign them.
I’ll tell you one person that is super happy about this deal, and that is Kimbo Slice. Now we are going to have to see his ugly mug plastered all over network television…
Diego Sanchez , no way in hell is getting (T)KOed. He has hung with the some of the toughest fighters out there and has never even come close to being finished before. Regardless of 2 losses in a row, one he was seriously sick and the other was a split decision. Diego in my mind will be back in contention in no time.
all i got to say is listen 2 henderson he says the fight ends with his hand getting raised. well that means the judges will chose the winner. cause if u knock the guy out the fight is over it has ended same with a submission. and heath says it going 2 b a long fight i bet he takes kongo 2 the ground and trys 2 ground and pound. main word TRY. henderson likes the judges cause they give him alot of points 4 takedowns even if he doesn’t do anything with it. dana is trying 2 talk his crap like always but don’t believe his lies. come on the heavy weight isn’t stacked like he says the 2 best heavyweights in the world don’t even fight here. dana your a lier and i’m not going 2 believe your lies u said w.silva and chuck wasn’t going 2 last all 3 rounds but i knew it was. his job is 2 talk up all the fights so more people watch but its just alot of lies.
[quote comment=”331132″][quote comment=”331052″]Henderson via unamious decision
Herring via 2nd round submission
Fitch via 1st round submission
Leben via 3rd round knockout
Okami via unamios decision
O’brien via boring lay and pray unamious decision
Kos via 2nd round tko
Diego via split decision
Cummo via 2nd round submission
Gurgel via 1st round submission[/quote]
Here’s what I think:
Hendo via Unanimous Decision
Kongo via 2nd rd KO
Sakara via 1st Rd KO
Arlovski via 2nd rd KO
Okami via Unanimous Decision
Hazelett via Decision
Diego via 2nd rd Submission
Cummo via 2nd rd KO
Gurgel via Split Decision[/quote]
and here is what i think
silva tko 3rd
herring unanimous decision
fitch tko 1rd
leben tko 1rd
arlovski ko 1rd
tanner split decision
koscheck ko 1rd
sanchez unanimous deision
cummo tko 3rd
halverson split decision
[quote comment=”331229″][quote comment=”331132″][quote comment=”331052″]Henderson via unamious decision
Herring via 2nd round submission
Fitch via 1st round submission
Leben via 3rd round knockout
Okami via unamios decision
O’brien via boring lay and pray unamious decision
Kos via 2nd round tko
Diego via split decision
Cummo via 2nd round submission
Gurgel via 1st round submission[/quote]
Here’s what I think:
Hendo via Unanimous Decision
Kongo via 2nd rd KO
Sakara via 1st Rd KO
Arlovski via 2nd rd KO
Okami via Unanimous Decision
Hazelett via Decision
Diego via 2nd rd Submission
Cummo via 2nd rd KO
Gurgel via Split Decision[/quote]
and here is what i think
silva tko 3rd
herring unanimous decision
fitch tko 1rd
leben tko 1rd
arlovski ko 1rd
tanner split decision
koscheck ko 1rd
sanchez unanimous deision
cummo tko 3rd
halverson split decision[/quote]
but thats not my ufc fantsy picks
[quote comment=”331218″]all i got to say is listen 2 henderson he says the fight ends with his hand getting raised. well that means the judges will chose the winner. cause if u knock the guy out the fight is over it has ended same with a submission. and heath says it going 2 b a long fight i bet he takes kongo 2 the ground and trys 2 ground and pound. main word TRY. henderson likes the judges cause they give him alot of points 4 takedowns even if he doesn’t do anything with it. dana is trying 2 talk his crap like always but don’t believe his lies. come on the heavy weight isn’t stacked like he says the 2 best heavyweights in the world don’t even fight here. dana your a lier and i’m not going 2 believe your lies u said w.silva and chuck wasn’t going 2 last all 3 rounds but i knew it was. his job is 2 talk up all the fights so more people watch but its just alot of lies.[/quote]
Is dana white suppose to be some kind of physcic or something?
Silva is going to knock Hendo out in the second round. First KO of his career. I’m not guranteeing it, but I am expecting it.
I think Hendo is beating Silva for sure. I bet against Kos and Diego because of your advice and because I don’t like those guys, but I’m not feeling super confident about it.
Am I the only one who bet on Tanner?
Think about it, his resiliance is crazy, the way he went with Terrel through that Guillatine no problem, came back and smashed him, then went all the way with Rich, dropping Rich a couple times. What is OKami’s lay and pray style gonna do? Couldnt sub Rich, adn I think Tanner is better on the ground.
[quote comment=”331364″]Am I the only one who bet on Tanner?
Think about it, his resiliance is crazy, the way he went with Terrel through that Guillatine no problem, came back and smashed him, then went all the way with Rich, dropping Rich a couple times. What is OKami’s lay and pray style gonna do? Couldnt sub Rich, adn I think Tanner is better on the ground.[/quote]
How can anyone possibly be sure of this one. Tanner has been out of action for god knows how long. That sub attempt (kimura was it? I can’t remember exactly, I was at the event and I remember thinking he might have to tap, it was cranked) Okami put on Rich was closer than Rich will admit. I don’t bet but I’m always interested in looking at the odds. I suppose there is some value in backing Tanner though, if he’s in shape.
[quote comment=”331133″][quote comment=”331114″]Did you guys hear that EliteXC struck a deal with CBS? Not sure if they posted it here already.
Here’s the link: http://fiveouncesofpain.com/2008/02/27/elitexc-inks-network-deal-with-cbs/#comments
Like the argument in the article states, I have concerns over the legitamacy of EliteXC’s promotion. They put on a circus act like Tank v. Slice and now they are taking their promotion mainstream. This is going to give MMA a lot of exposure, but is EliteXC the exposure MMA wants? Say what you want about the UFC, but at least they put on legite shows, with some great talent (barring UFC 78). This could be a huge deal for MMA, and I don’t want EliteXC and their creep of a promoter screwing it up. I guess we’ll have to wait and see what happens. Undoubtedly, the UFC will be looking to get their product on a network station if this is true.[/quote]
That is truely a big deal. EliteXC is trying to cement themselves as the #1 contender to the UFC’s status as the Champion of MMA Organizations. Gary Shaw is just going to keep on picking up Dana’s leftovers, make the most of it, and be successful because eventually, free agent fighters will WANT to fight for them. UFC is going to lose Arlovski, its inevitable. There are a good number of UFC fighters approaching the last fight on thier current contracts and Dana better believe that Gary Shaw is going to be standing there with his wallett open ready to sign them.
I’ll tell you one person that is super happy about this deal, and that is Kimbo Slice. Now we are going to have to see his ugly mug plastered all over network television…[/quote]
Kimbo is actually being considered to headline the 1st ever mma CBS broadcast… He probably wont portray mma in a very good way. Throw Diaz on CBS or Sheilds.
SPIKE TV will make a decision soon about weather or not they want to air UFC 85: Liddell vs. Shogun for free on Spike TV.
This would be the best event ever given for free by the UFC….keep your fingers crossed!
With EliteXc getting on CBS, Dana has got to do something!
[quote comment=”331218″]all i got to say is listen 2 henderson he says the fight ends with his hand getting raised. well that means the judges will chose the winner. cause if u knock the guy out the fight is over it has ended same with a submission. and heath says it going 2 b a long fight i bet he takes kongo 2 the ground and trys 2 ground and pound. main word TRY. henderson likes the judges cause they give him alot of points 4 takedowns even if he doesn’t do anything with it. dana is trying 2 talk his crap like always but don’t believe his lies. come on the heavy weight isn’t stacked like he says the 2 best heavyweights in the world don’t even fight here. dana your a lier and i’m not going 2 believe your lies u said w.silva and chuck wasn’t going 2 last all 3 rounds but i knew it was. his job is 2 talk up all the fights so more people watch but its just alot of lies.[/quote]
However you win a fight, you get your hand raised at the end , especially in a title fight. When he gets the belt put around his waist, he’s not standing there with his arms around his side so they would get handcuffed by the belt.
PLUS, Hendo is not saying that he is trying to win by decision, actually its quite the opposite. He is going in there looking for a KO/TKO.
[quote post=”5101″]UFC is going to lose Arlovski, its inevitable. There are a good number of UFC fighters approaching the last fight on thier current contracts and Dana better believe that Gary Shaw is going to be standing there with his wallett open ready to sign them.
I’ll tell you one person that is super happy about this deal, and that is Kimbo Slice. Now we are going to have to see his ugly mug plastered all over network television…[/quote]
If Arlovski goes to EliteXC and diposes of Silva, Ricco (I know he lost to him before), who will they match him up with? Kimbo?…Kimbo might actually die! (Tongue in cheek)
Nah, AA will get another one of the big boys. Maybe Barnett or Hunt, perhaps someone in a cross-promotional event. Hmmm, Belarussian vs. Russian. I don’t need to explain this one. Good old soviets.
[quote comment=”332327″][quote comment=”331218″]all i got to say is listen 2 henderson he says the fight ends with his hand getting raised. well that means the judges will chose the winner. cause if u knock the guy out the fight is over it has ended same with a submission. and heath says it going 2 b a long fight i bet he takes kongo 2 the ground and trys 2 ground and pound. main word TRY. henderson likes the judges cause they give him alot of points 4 takedowns even if he doesn’t do anything with it. dana is trying 2 talk his crap like always but don’t believe his lies. come on the heavy weight isn’t stacked like he says the 2 best heavyweights in the world don’t even fight here. dana your a lier and i’m not going 2 believe your lies u said w.silva and chuck wasn’t going 2 last all 3 rounds but i knew it was. his job is 2 talk up all the fights so more people watch but its just alot of lies.[/quote]
However you win a fight, you get your hand raised at the end , especially in a title fight. When he gets the belt put around his waist, he’s not standing there with his arms around his side so they would get handcuffed by the belt.
PLUS, Hendo is not saying that he is trying to win by decision, actually its quite the opposite. He is going in there looking for a KO/TKO.[/quote]
well u make a good point. but i’m just saying he needs 2 watch what he says. but let me remind u i have seen henderson fight in pride alot and he talks alot but doesn’t back it up all the time. i’ve heard him say kind of the same things in pride and he did the takedown lay down thing that wrestlers like 2 do in MMA. i’m not saying all of them do it all the time but they all do it sometimes and the good MMA wrestlers do it against another good fighter. like hughes great wrestler and MMA fighter. but sherk loves the judges.
and P.S. henderson says that about all the fights he is in. so i don’t believe it until i see it.
[quote comment=”331235″][quote comment=”331218″]all i got to say is listen 2 henderson he says the fight ends with his hand getting raised. well that means the judges will chose the winner. cause if u knock the guy out the fight is over it has ended same with a submission. and heath says it going 2 b a long fight i bet he takes kongo 2 the ground and trys 2 ground and pound. main word TRY. henderson likes the judges cause they give him alot of points 4 takedowns even if he doesn’t do anything with it. dana is trying 2 talk his crap like always but don’t believe his lies. come on the heavy weight isn’t stacked like he says the 2 best heavyweights in the world don’t even fight here. dana your a lier and i’m not going 2 believe your lies u said w.silva and chuck wasn’t going 2 last all 3 rounds but i knew it was. his job is 2 talk up all the fights so more people watch but its just alot of lies.[/quote]
Is dana white suppose to be some kind of physcic or something?[/quote]
did i say he was? no but he trys 2 b.
I didn’t know much about Henderson, but knowing that he knocked out Wandi when Chuck landed punch after punch and still couldn’t knock Wandi out tells me that he has some serious punching power. If he lands it, Silva is going down. This is going to be a really interesting fight to watch.
[quote comment=”330962″][quote comment=”330918″]I’m betting my house on Bielkheden[/quote]
I got a room for rent, since you’ll be in the market.[/quote]
anyway, house prices in the us are dropping very fast, i think you should prefer candies against your house: much more of a value.
seriously, i bet on kongo, leben and arlovski 55 €uropean €uros