UFC Fight Night 11 is set for this Wednesday, September 19 at 9 p.m. ET from the Palms Hotel & Casino in Las Vegas, Nevada.
The Spike television special will air right before the debut episode of The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 6 mixed martial arts reality series.
Put simply, it’s a great night to be a UFC fan.
We’re getting ready for all the action with our quick preview, analysis and predictions for the televised portion of the main card.
Normally, I go toe-to-toe with UFCmania.com contributor, Jesse Holland. However, after talking to some of our top posters I learned that many of them enjoyed sharing their thoughts in this column while I was on baby “vacation.”
So, every once in a while we will ask a site regular to chip in with some feedback on upcoming events. In the meantime, I’ll try not to take it too personal.
First up: Loyal UFCmania.com reader “Luppers.”
Below, you’ll see that Jesse and Nathan took one fighter in each bout to support. It’s important to note that while someone may be lauding a certain fighter, he isn’t necessarily the guy who he thinks is going to win.
Basically, we never want this to come out sounding repetitive — that happens enough on this site day in and day out. At the end of each analysis, therefore, you will see the picks.
Here we go:
Din Thomas (20-6) vs. Kenny Florian (6-3)
Jesse Holland: Kenny Florian versus Din Thomas in any other place and time might be nothing more than a battle of two talented lightweights. But thanks to the Sean Sherk steroid scandal, this match now has an air of title contention surrounding it. And don’t think Din Thomas doesn’t know it. In our conversation with Din back in July, he spoke candidly about getting the title shot he feels he deserves. It won’t be an easy task as he faces The Ultimate Fighter alumnus and perennial lightweight contender Kenny Florian. KenFlo might get goofed on for looking like Ben Stiller and Kevin Richardson, but that doesn’t change the fact that he’s a skilled fighter. Five of his six wins have come by submission, including his quick disposal of the up-and-coming Sam Stout at Ultimate Finale 3, an opponent many “experts” picked to send him back into obscurity. His losses to Diego Sanchez and Drew Fickett were in a weight class where his body was not welcome, and a five round decision loss to Sherk? Not exactly a blemish considering Sherk’s accomplishments. Thomas is very well rounded and is nearly impossible to submit but I think Florian is a better fighter on the inside and fights the smarter fight. He’s also quicker and assuming Thomas continues his love affair with his jab Florian may have little trouble getting the better of each round.
UFCmania reader “Luppers:” Din has been around for years, fighting hard and being very undersized at 170 pounds. Now that the 155-pound division has returned to the UFC and the weight class is in full swing, Din is back at his natural weight. The match up with Kenny should be a good fight. Din has always demonstrated exceptionally fast hands and refined standup. “Dinyero” also has fantastic submission talent, winning more than half of his fights by submission.Thomas knows this fight with KenFlo is his chance to get back to fighting the top fighters in his division and could earn him a potential rematch with BJ Penn in the near future. Thomas is going to take full advantage of this chance.
Final Predictions
Holland — Florian via unanimous decision
Luppers — Thomas via unanimous decision
Chris Leben (16-4) vs. Terry Martin (16-2)
Jesse Holland: Terry Martin is back by unpopular demand to face the only fighter in the UFC with a mouth that can match his own. Aside from a big trap, Martin also has big power. He’s finished more than 60% of his fights by (T)KO and is 4-0 since losing to Jason Lambert at UFC 59. He’s much quicker and better conditioned now that he’s dropped to a more natural 185lbs. and a win here could put Martin into the title hunt in a division that is quickly starting to thin out. Martin also has an advantage going into this fight in that a loss would be much more devastating for Leben than it would for him. “The Crippler” has been on a downturn since his KO loss to Anderson Silva, going 1-2 and publicly questioning his commitment to the UFC. Whether or not Martin can use this to his advantage remains to be seen. Martin needs to be cautious because he can be susceptible to the haymaker. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him try and outmuscle Leben as he did Ivan Salaverry at UFC 71. In 18 fights Martin has only gone to a decision once so he can’t be accused of not brining it. As long as he keeps that momentum and doesn’t get reckless he stands a good chance of making it up one more rung on the middleweight ladder.
UFCmania reader “Luppers:” Leben is well-known from his time on the TUF series. Not exactly a fan favorite, Leben has always been respected for what he is - a banger. Rogan said it best when he made the statement that Leben’s red dyed head was ‘like a fire hydrant.’ Even though Leben has lost his last two fights in rather undramatic fashion, he boasts wins over such exceptional fighters as Mike Swick, Patrick Cote and Luigi Fioravanti. Leben’s back is basically to the wall, which makes men fight much harder.
Final Predictions
Holland — Leben via technical knockout
Luppers — Leben via technical knockout
Nate Diaz (6-2) vs. Junior Assuncao (5-2)
Jesse Holland: The UFC hopes Junior Assuncao will continue the long and honored tradition of playing patsy to a recently crowned TUF champ. Assuncao on the other hand, hopes to be the first fighter since Josh Neer to rain on the graduation parade. Nate Diaz, like his brother before him, is a difficult fighter to match up against from a style perspective, but that may actually work in Junior’s favor. Assuncao is brown belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu and is comfortable tussling on the ground. He also loves to battle but will probably look to avoid striking with Diaz where he has a distinct disadvantage. Even if it stays on the feet however it’s not necessarily a foregone conclusion. Full Throttle fans will remember when Dustin Hazelett turned Junior’s body into peanut brittle only to get knocked out shortly thereafter in a spectacular finish. Assuncao needs to be the smarter fighter to pull this one out and not let Diaz pick him apart in the stand up. To that end, he should try and avoid staying in one place for very long. To me the most interesting aspect of this fight is taking place outside of the Octagon. Will older brother (and EliteXC fighter) Nick be cornering Diaz for Wednesday’s fight?
UFCmania reader “Luppers:” Yet another standout from the TUF series on this lineup, many casual fans know of both the Diaz brothers. Nate trains with his exceptionally talented brother, Nick, at Cesar Gracie jiu jitsu. Diaz’ last fight ended early because of a Manny Gamburyan injury during the TUF 5 Finale where Diaz walked out the winner. With Diaz’ exceptional jui jitsu skills he has a great chance of winning against almost any fighter in the lightweight division.
Final Predictions
Holland — Diaz via unanimous decision
Luppers — Assuncao via unanimous decision
Nate Quarry (8-2) vs. Pete Sell (7-3)
Jesse Holland: Nate Quarry returns to the Octagon for the first time in almost two years and his first order of business is to prove his TKO stoppage of Pete Sell back at 2005’s Ultimate Fight Night was no accident. Fans may remember the questionable stoppage for being a bit premature and also for creating a Quarry “Manwich”. While critics may be concerned about Quarry’s ring rust it should be noted that Drago hasn’t exactly been tearing up the division since they last met. He’s 1-2 with back-to-back losses in the UFC including a tough KO loss to Scott Smith at Ultimate Finale 4. Quarry’s strength has always been his hands and he’ll be looking for the KO to put an exclamation point on his return. The last place he wants this fight to end up is on the ground where he is easily outmatched. Look for Quarry to keep away from the shot and set up the big punch. Considering the layoff “The Rock” may have a questionable gas tank but in my opinion he’s not interested in letting this one to go the distance. None of his UFC wins have gone longer than one round and I don’t expect this one too either. I have a feeling history is going to repeat itself.
UFCmania reader “Luppers:” “Drago” is another fighter from the TUF series who fights and trains with current Welterweight Champion, Matt Serra, at Serra jiu jitsu. Sell — like Leben — has lost his last two UFC, holding a 1-3 record in the Octagon. His only win, in fact, is a submission over the hard-hitting Phil Baroni. One of his losses in the UFC has come against Nate Quarry. Pete is a skilled jiu jitsu artist that absolutely needs to win this fight and get back to his winning ways. Look for him to come out aggressive and try to win this fight cleanly.
Final Predictions
Holland — Quarry via technical knockout
Luppers — Quarry via technical knockout
What do you think? Now it’s your turn … let us have it in the comments section and provide your picks for UFC Fight Night 11.
For the complete UFC Fight Night 11 fight card click here.
42 Comments »
Should be a good UFN. Don’t care for the reality show though. Can you watch just the fights on the UFC website or something?
I’m psyched up for Wednesday night.
Definitely a good week to be a UFC fan. Wednesday’s card has some pretty good match ups on it, a great warm up for UFC76 on Saturday. Plus you get the reality show season premier! Most people aren’t really into that as much but hey, at least it’s some MMA on tv!
Off the subject but does anyone know why Dan Severn never makes any appearances? The guy is in the Hall of Fame and you never see or hear from him. Just curious if anyone knew anything.
[quote comment=”150749″]Off the subject but does anyone know why Dan Severn never makes any appearances? The guy is in the Hall of Fame and you never see or hear from him. Just curious if anyone knew anything.[/quote]
Yeah, I miss The Beast. I remember he was commentating during his friend Don Frye’s match (I think in another promotion), and he called him “Don-Don”. Then he said something like “Uh-oh, he probably won’t like that I called him Don-Don on TV”. lol
“Nathan” - AKA Luppers.
i am suprised that you both gave the win to leben, i think martin has him outmatched wherever the fight goes and leben has looked very unimpressive in his last few fights. nathan says “Leben’s back is basically to the wall, which makes men fight much harder.” but that was also the case against caleb starnes.
I am curious to see the diaz fight only for his toughness and creativity. Thomas has long been unpredictable. Leben’s arms are too short making all his fights too dangerous. Additionally, Leben has lost his edge. I will watch, but this is kind of like dating your friends x-girlfriends - Who wants seconds? Call me shallow and critical, but I am not excited about this card.
My predictions are….
Winners:
Din Thomas - Guy is crazy nasty lately. I think he will over power Kenny in any situation except for maybe his glass jaw.
Terry Martin - I see him frustrating Leben to the point of defeat. Martin does exactly what Leben does but better.
Junior Assuncao - Not quite sure why I picked him. I do think though that Diaz will be intimidated for his first fight in front of everybody.
Nate Quarry - I think he is gonna come back stronger and better. Granted he did get kicked out of extreme couture but I dont think it will influence this fight since it was a while ago. Pete Sell will be hoping to not lose a 3rd fight straight though. His back is to the wall as well. Look for this fight to be “extremely couture” close. wah wah wahhhh. No but in all honesty I think Quarry will win. Will be close though.
Is there ANY WAY i can UFN in the UK Mania??
P.S. I don’t know enough about all the above fighters to predict, but KENFLO Vs THOMAS should be great, should be on a Main UFC card too.
Plus, I am rooting for Pete Sell in his fight, anyone who has beatup Baroni is worth a christmas card in my books!!
Ooops
I mean, is there any way i can WATCH the UFNights in the UK??
LUPPERS - in your write up for Chris Leben, you say:
“Rogan said it best when he made the statement that Leben’s red dyed head was “like a fire hydrant.’ ”
What does this mean???
Goldy once said, ‘Terry’s Martin’s shorts are the color blue, the same shade as the sky’
How would either of those statement have anything to do with the outcome of a fight?
fight night will be on broavo on the 24th
LOL, in my last post, I was trying to type “Terry Martin’s” and I actually typed “Terry Martits”
LOL!! Terry Martits!! especially when he was 205!
The only one I strongly disagree with is the Martin/Leben prediction. Leben likes to walk through punches with his hands at his side, and has relied on his chin to keep him out of trouble. I don’t think he can afford to do that vs Martin, and will get dropped
Only place I would differ is Diaz winning by submission. He may still be new to the big show, but that kid has pretty decent hands to add to his ground game. I like BJJ battlers, should be a good fight.
[quote comment=”150768″]Ooops
I mean, is there any way i can WATCH the UFNights in the UK??[/quote]
I’m from the Republic of Ireland and I always wanna watch the Ultimate Fight Nights too but never get the chance. I love watchin the Ultimate Fighter series. Series 1 got me hooked on the UFC.
My picks are KenFlo, Martin, Diaz n the Rock. 3 of the 4 of those guys are class, obviously not that tool Martin though. I hope Leben and he kick the crap outta each other n Martin just edges it
[quote comment=”150777″]LUPPERS - in your write up for Chris Leben, you say:
“Rogan said it best when he made the statement that Leben’s red dyed head was “like a fire hydrant.’ “[/quote]
Meaning Leben can take a hell of a shot. Dude has one hell of a chin.. unless you are speaking of Anderson Silva of course (which I think that was the fight Rogan made that comment during..)
[quote post=”3349″]Meaning Leben can take a hell of a shot. Dude has one hell of a chin.. unless you are speaking of Anderson Silva of course (which I think that was the fight Rogan made that comment during..) [/quote]
Thanks Luppers, now it makes sense! The sentence prior to the fire hydrant says that he’s a “banger”. If it said something about him having a solid chin, I would have understood it while reading. Sorry, I don’t mean to critique, you did a great job in the first ever Top Commentator Fight Predictions!
[quote comment=”150779″]LOL, in my last post, I was trying to type “Terry Martin’s” and I actually typed “Terry Martits”
LOL!! Terry Martits!! especially when he was 205![/quote]
..thats funny
I think Dr. Martin uses his elite wrestling skills (and yes, he has them) to take Leben down, pound him out and bid him a fond farewell from the UFC.
Peter Drago Sell will win… you can bet on it… I did, with bodog when drago was plus 215, now its at 200 but its still a good play in my eyes… then again everyone else on this site thinks that nate is going to win..
I am suprised you both gave the Leben v. Martin fight to Leben.
I got Thomas, Leben, Diaz, and Quarry as the winners. I am very excited Quarry is on the telvised portion. I cant wait to see his return. 185 lbs needs him back at the top.
[quote comment=”150824″]I am suprised you both gave the Leben v. Martin fight to Leben.[/quote]Honestly, its a pretty close fight… its who really wants it more. Same with the Diaz-Assuncao fight and the Sell-Quarry fight. I just really havent seen anything out of Diaz or Sell that show me that either of these guys should or could be picked as a winner. Not saying that they dont have talent or shouldnt be fighting. But they need to make more of an impact than a guy running 1-2 and a guy that won a reality show due to being in the right place at the right time.
That sux you cant watch it in Ireland. The ufc needs to start respecting the Irish. The card they put on in Belfast was terrible. Dana is from South Boston for christ sakes, he needs to show some respect!
I am heavily excited about this card.
Here is my predictions with some analysis.
KenFlo vs. Din Thomas.
How can you go wrong with this fight? I can possibly see a fight of the year award coming to this match. I just see a BJJ clinic happening, and BJJ Submission Defense being executed at its finest.
Does KenFlo have an Iron Chin? Does Din Thomas?
hm..
This fight is going to go to the ground, no doubt about it, who has the edge there? I would have to say Kenflo.
Tough tough tough match-up for both.
Prediction: Din Thomas via TKO Strikes Round 3
Terry Martin vs. Chris Leben.
Leben has an reach advantage over Martin, so what. Leben has shown, when he gets hit, he falls down. Martin might just hit harder than Anderson Silva. If Leben opens himself up, he will get caught. This is a Banger for sure.
Martin wins Round 1 TKO Punches
Nate Diaz vs. Junior.
Another tough match-up to predict. I think Junior has what it takes to beat Nate, because I really never saw a real contenter come out of Nate on the show, but the lights are on, and with Nate’s BJJ, I think Nate takes it.
Nate Diaz wins Round 2.. Gogoplata… kidding. Triangle Choke.
Quarry vs. Sell
I think alot of people are underestimating Pete Sell. Pete Sell is one tough dude. Go watch UFC 69, and watch Sell/Leites. Sell got whooped, but he could always defend himself. It takes alot to knock out Pete Sell. With Nate Quarry finally healthy, what kind of fighter are we going to see? The fighter that made him championship contender fighter? Or will it be like a Frank Mir return?
Prediction: Pete Sell wins via Split decision.
Other matches:
Dustin Hazelett wins via Round 2 Armbar
Cole Miller wins via round 3 triangle choke.
I CANT WAIT TO SEE THIS!!
Jesse, and Luppers congrats!
[quote comment=”150851″][quote comment=”150824″]I am suprised you both gave the Leben v. Martin fight to Leben.[/quote]Honestly, its a pretty close fight… its who really wants it more. Same with the Diaz-Assuncao fight and the Sell-Quarry fight. I just really havent seen anything out of Diaz or Sell that show me that either of these guys should or could be picked as a winner. Not saying that they dont have talent or shouldnt be fighting. But they need to make more of an impact than a guy running 1-2 and a guy that won a reality show due to being in the right place at the right time.[/quote]
This is true, hopefully both of them come with a full gas tank …it should be a war.
i agree with all of the analysis sections, but not entirely on the picks. Personally, i have:
-Din Thomas
-Terry Martin (as much as i detest him)
-Nate Diaz
-Nate Quarry
I think it should be a great night of fights… only overshadowed by the great card that is “knockout” - i cant wait for Saturday!
wow forgot to post my undercard picks:
-Thiago Alves
-Maynard
-Cummo
-Garcia
-Goulet (only out of national pride)
After reading all these post, this seems to be a very exciting card I cant wait!
KenFlo
Martin
Diaz
Sell
This is they way I would bet a parlee card.
my picks:
kenny florian vs. din thomas: din thomas split decision (fight of the night)
chris leban vs. terry martin: martin 1st rd. (T)KO (KO of the night)
nate diaz vs. junior assuncao: diaz 2nd rd. triangle choke (sub of the night)
pete sell vs. nate quary: pete sell unanimous decision
thiago alves vs. hironaka: hironaka split decision (fight of the night runner up)
hazelett vs. goulet: goulet 2nd rd. (T)KO
cole miller vs. leonard garcia: garcia unanimous decision
gray maynard vs. joe veres: gray 1st rd. (T)KO
luke cummo vs. de Oliveira: cummo unanimous decision
Flo, TKO 2nd GNP
Leben, TKO 1st Standing
Diaz, Submission 1st, Triangle
Sell, Submission 1st, Armbar
Hironaka, Decision
Goulet, KO, Flash KO Standing
Miller, Submission 3rd, Something weird or triangle
Gray, TKO 1st, GNP
Cummo, 2nd TKO, Standing Clinch KO
If you want this Fan, Wrestler, Swordfighter, and now BJJ Whitebelt’s opinion! I’ve only called 1 card this effectively before, and I didn’t post it here, so now I’m taking the liberty!
Din Thomas - 2nd Round tko
Terry Martin - 1st round KO
Nate Diaz - Submission round ?
Pete Sell - Decision
Luke Cumo - 2nd round KO
Cole Miller - Decision
Gray Maynard - tko
Thiago Alves - tko
Jonathan Goulet - 1st round KO - IN UNDER 45 SECONDS
Is it just me, or are the analyses completely unrelated to the predictions? It’s sort of like reading, “Nate Diaz is on a terrific role; he boasts an incredible win over Manny Gamburyan. His amazing Jiu Jitsu talent and great striking could take him to levels never seen before at lightweight,” but the prediction, “Assuncao by decision.”
I think Diaz will have problems with any guy who can take him down and avoid submissions. He’s a good, lanky striker, though; maybe he can pick off Assuncao from a distance like he did with Hermes Franca before getting submitted.
Alves-Hironaka is a very interesting fight. If it lives up to my expectations, then I hope it finds its way on the televised portion of the card.
ok my track record as of late hasnt been perfect, i did call the couture fights on the money and the rampage fights…but for the most part im pretty shity at it…
…HOWEVER, IMMA GO OUT ON A LIMB AND PREDICT A FIRST ROUND KNOCK OUT OF KIETH JARDINE…
any takers?
[quote comment=”151357″]ok my track record as of late hasnt been perfect, i did call the couture fights on the money and the rampage fights…but for the most part im pretty shity at it…
…HOWEVER, IMMA GO OUT ON A LIMB AND PREDICT A FIRST ROUND KNOCK OUT OF KIETH JARDINE…
any takers?[/quote]
I’m thinking 2nd round… When Jardine is a bit more gassed and the defence starts to fade.
But this is a string for UFN11 predictions
any clue if the the weigh ins are going to be aired live on ufc’s website?
[quote comment=”150853″]That sux you cant watch it in Ireland. The ufc needs to start respecting the Irish. The card they put on in Belfast was terrible. Dana is from South Boston for christ sakes, he needs to show some respect![/quote]
Cheers Tim. At least someone recognises that Ireland is actually not Northern Ireland. The fan base is growin here too
i gotta take diaz in the fight with junior, although junior is a BJJ brown belt it seems like the diaz brothers BJJ translates so well to MMA. Some fighters just cant execute their JJ while being punched. The Diaz brothers do it better than anyone.
Curious to see if Nick will corner Nate
Lets go with Kenney over Din, nate Diaz and chris lebmen to win
Leben will get KO’d by Martin, and KenFlo will get destroyed by Din. Bank on it.